This is what I see as the fundamentals of GXY in the year 2021
*assuming SDV first production late 2019 with ramp up over the following 18 months, consistent with SQM/LAC-Cauchari ramp up time estimates
*prices of LCE and spodumene based on Deutsche Bank long term pricing model (JL says all analysts in Lithium pricing don't know what they're doing besides Deutsche Bank)
*James Bay deliberately left out as buffer against any CR dilution, FX movements
*Tax credits used up before 2021, so paying taxes as usual in year 2021
Column 1 Column 2 0 Calendar Year 2021 1 SDV 2 LCE production tonnes 35,000 3 Price per tonne 12,000 4 Operating Cost per tonne 3,000 5 EBITDA (USD) 315,000,000 6 AUDUSD 0.77 7 EBITDA (AUD) 409,090,909 8 Attributable to GXY (100%) 409,090,909 9 Interest (100m debt) 10,000,000 10 Depreciation 1,740,000 11 Taxes @ 30% 119,205,273 12 NPAT (AUD) 278,145,636 13 EPS of SDV (1946m shares) 0.143 14 15 Mt Cattlin 16 Spodumene tonnes 225,000 17 Price per tonne 550 18 Operating Cost per tonne (USD) 320 19 EBITDA (USD) 51,750,000 20 AUDUSD 0.77 21 EBITDA (AUD) 67,207,792 22 Interest AUD (USD 40m debt) 3,636,364 23 Depreciation 344,148 24 Taxes @ 30% 18,968,184 25 NPAT (AUD) 44,259,096 26 EPS of Mt Cattlin 0.023 27 28 Total EPS 0.166 29 PE 12.00 30 Target SP 1.99
This is my view, please DYOR, but follow fundamentals as the history doesn't tell you anything.
The future is key. The trend is your friend and right now electric vehicles and electric storage systems have just started to trend.
Seeking Alpha sees a 2020 price of A$2.32, so that makes me look like pessimist. So don't bark at me if my TP is lower than yours.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3983653-galaxy-resources-excellent-way-invest-lithium-miners
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