It’s a very good question Johnno261, and one I don’t have the answer for. However, in saying that I will add that I do not believe graphite is purely a commercial investment.
Below is an interesting Bloomberg link, it talks about the trade war already afoot between the U.S. and China over solar panels. This trade-war fear, combined with the South & East Sea China disputes and their graphite monopoly is why governments/businesses are looking to distance themselves from the whims of China’s policy makers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-in-trade-war-on-solar-and-everyone-is-losing
Then there’s the realities to consider, can China actually carry out their threats? Do they have enough graphite to flood the world with a cheap product so tempting that all the other up and coming wannabe competitors fall by the wayside?
There’s a lot of data suggesting China is already at peak production. They no longer have resources to pump out endless streams of high-quality cost competitive graphite. Want proof? How about this from an anode manufacturer to KNL; “The quality of Kibaran’s battery-grade graphite is superior to that produced in China. One major anode manufacturer has advised Kibaran that the product’s analytical values even exceeded their high expectations.”
And this doesn’t even take into account China’s new “5 million new energy vehicles by 2020” policy which will see them consume more and more of their own graphite;
http://reneweconomy.com.au/china-sets-target-for-5-million-new-energy-vehicles-by-2020-78273/
I’m of the opinion we’re seeing the death throes of the Chinese graphite monopoly. I believe the “binding off-takes” they signed were part of this strategy, to retard development of the graphite industry for as long as possible. This is phase 2. And I have no idea what phase 3 might be, but I have no doubt that they have one.
As for the TK question, I have no doubt the China dump will impact our lower quality product. But I do not believe it will impact the higher quality graphite, simply because it appears China no longer has the quality required to compete. They have exhausted their supplies. I also think governments see through their games, especially the forward looking and manufacturing-reliant countries like Germany.
(20min delay)