PEN

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8.0¢ peninsula energy limited

Ann: Enthusiastic Share Purchase Plan Take Up, page-26

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arsenic

15,398 Posts.

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02/03/17

13:30

Post #: 23045438
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Originally posted by Gavin917 ↑

Haha. Who was it that said: "it's just the vibe of the thing"?

Look. I'm not here to start a riot and you seem to ask genuinely.

But the assertions you put forward, I just disagree with them. Well, almost all of them. I know Gus and I think (albeit we disagree on some items, including NY listing) that while he is commander in chief, he will always have more info than you, so I believe he's actually been massaging the company for/into a U price recovery perfectly.

Of course, like all of us...who can get timing right? If you dig a bit deeper into the Cash flows, a lot of answers not patently obvious are there. In my opinion, we are effectively debt free once receivables are entered (and as long as you factor CR dilution in shares not add debt...easy if you just hold your nose like and see it coming like most should have). And the rationale for the SPP is, I feel, self evident. Make no mistake, stage 1.5 wasn't s perfect choice designed in nirvana. Nor in fact was stage 2 (before 3). But seeing Gus persist with options the past 3 years in a ferocious bear mkt to put us into production is a mean feat.

Forget the polarva about $88.00 per lb. it's disingenuous because they aren't looking at cashflow. The 35k lbs per qtr is intentional and we could bring it down by producing more. But To what end, if we have a better cash flow solution? This needs cash flow investigation.

Preserving lbs in ground is clearly a management strategy. As long as we're selling to our $56lb contracts is the important thing and HAVE inventory to sell them. They don't pull U from an ATM.

If you think I'm talking in rhymes, it's worthy of reading the cashflows again. Penny should drop. Not to mention Jan-march quarterly should be interesting.

It's late and I've gotta hit the sac but I can give a rundown if others haven't by morning or weekend. Look, I won't try to sway you, we're just reading the same book differently.

I'm seeing enough regular punter interest of $15k stakes to suggest a vote of confidence. I haven't put my $15 k in yet and had about 6 people today say they were doing it too. I don't see an issue with the amount raised. Unfortunately underwriter still gets paid.

More than that is that I'm seeing a very tight register (70% top 50) going into NY. Not to mention the 'holders' within remaining 30%. Is say at aguess, a 15% free float.

Can do some damage when conditions are set.

Good luck. You may get lucky and pick up a few sub 60c if spot retreats. One guy with a beard to his toenails is waiting for 35c. Maybe he can pick up an OD in '17 some time for that?

Cheers

Gav

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Hi Gav
Re - the production cost of $88/lb. A question I asked at the briefings and was saving (savouring?).
- Were PEN going to alter the pumping and recovery bore pattern on the new areas under ISL.
After some thought (he was taken aback?)- The answer was no what they were going to do was turn off the lower recovery holes (sections) and concentrate on the higher recovery sections/solution areas.
That inherently gets the production cost down, enhances cash flow and allows the slow dissolution/recovery areas to be held in reserve to when prices better support it. (the last is my analysis of his thinking).

Cheers.

Last edited by arsenic: 02/03/17

PEN Price at posting: 64.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Enthusiastic Share Purchase Plan Take Up, page-26

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Ann: Enthusiastic Share Purchase Plan Take Up, page-26

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