Ann: Change in substantial holding from IFL, page-5

IOOF basically manages its clients' funds, and in some cases, it is the clients who decide to buy or sell a stock, so if general sentiment is negative, sell pressure eclipses buy pressure. However, the situation seems to have changed markedly after the first week of February. The list that IOOF provided shows concurrent buying and selling initially, but only selling for the period 8 February to 27 February. Total difference is 11,139,748 less 9,526,614 = 1,613,134. Sales in the 8 – 27 February were 1,695,444 shares – to wit:

....... $121,691.69 ..... 76,225 .. 1.596
......... $43,020.58 ..... 26,947 .. 1.596
....... $360,924.80.... 225,343 .. 1.602
....... $625,284.17 ... 391,662 .. 1.596
....... $100,193.77 ..... 62,630 .. 1.600
........... $4,465.32 ....... 2,801 .. 1.594
.............. $832.91 .......... 525 .. 1.586
....... $412,749.00 ... 272,395 .. 1.515
....... $221,799.99 ... 144,710 .. 1.533
....... $147,286.38 ..... 95,519 .. 1.542
....... $279,660.94 ... 181,339 .. 1.542
....... $322,716.61 ... 215,346 .. 1.499
.. $2,640,628.16 .. 1,695,444 .. 1.557

I do not know what triggered the sell-off. Basically, people buy shares for only one reason, but they sell them for many reasons. The share price rose nicely today on fairly healthy volumes (about twice the normal daily volume).

It's March already, so one thing we can be sure of, those on the inside have a good idea of the full year's performance metrics.

FNArena has a target price of $1.75 for TGA, which may be a brokers' consensus of only one broker (perhaps Morgans). The DPS is guesstimated to be 12c. Morningstar has an EPS estimate of 20.4c, and an DPS of 11.5c.

Historically Morgans has given a “price target”, which is based on a Price-Earnings multiple, and a DCF-style valuation, and then suggested the average of the two as a “weighted valuation”, or a “blended PE/DCF valuation. The Morgans analysis of 28 February 2016, for example had:

DCF valuation .......... $1.91
PE valuation* ........... $1.74 (also called “price target”)
Weighted Valuation .. $1.82

* The PE valuation line item in the 28 February 2016 report incorrectly suggests Morgans used a PE multiple of 10.5, but in fact 8.7 was used, and I think a 20c EPS was used. $1.74/$0.20 = 8.7.

There is probably a newer Morgans analysis dated November 2016, and perhaps an even newer one dated 28 February 2017, but I have not seen one later than 28 February 2016.