I have to say I had - and to some degree still have - the same concerns regarding breaking into a very tightly controlled market with possibly exclusive contracts and dominated by a single supplier.
However, the company has repeatedly stated that offtake negotiations are well advanced, e.g. see quote below from the FEED update 11 Aug 2016:
“Negotiations with regard to offtake agreements are continuing with multiple parties covering four geographical regions. Revised proposals have been received from the parties with volume commitments and final pricing mechanisms being closed out.”
Now, while that doesn't explain why many months later these negotiations still haven't yielded a tangible outcome, it sure doesn't sound like Cradle couldn't get a foot in the door, and I have no reason to doubt the veracity of these statements.
Also, it seems to me that from a steel producer's perspective it would be highly desirable to establish and develop an alternative supplier, if only to mitigate risk in case of unforeseen events. Being locked into exclusive contracts with a single supplier sounds like a rather vulnerable position, e.g. in case of natural disaster or other “force majeure” events that could potentially disrupt supply.
So that's my five cents' worth. I'll go back to muttering to myself now.
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