Hi
@niu The document at the start of this thread has the answers RE: how a take over might proceed with ORE
"The agreement also provides the parties with pre-emptive rights on each other interests in the event of a sale"
You were right that there are pre-emptive rights. - Those with those rights would be that of TTC and JEMSE right?
I also noticed some detail of the structure with regard to the operation, who goes where etc..
At the moment I am taking my time to do some research on ORE so that I can understand what kind of an arrangement may eventuate for GXY. Over time I have watched and read both yours and
@Audax77 contributions with appreciation. The chart is very meticulously maintained
@Audax77 which is commendable.
I noticed mention regarding a spreadsheet error that has resulted in the recent adjustment in forecasting for the Sales De Jujuy operation.
- Has there been any mention of how long this has been going on?
- Has anyone claimed responsibility for it?
Recently there have been some assertions that the reason all lithium stocks are suffering is a results of the sins of ORE and resulting in all lithium stocks paying for it. This was also mentioned in the recent article by Matt Bohlsen titled
"Time To Top Up On The Junior Lithium Miners" in which he presented the following under the heading -
Why are the lithium miners falling when the spot prices are flat?
- A third reason is that Orocobre and to a lesser extent Galaxy Resources production numbers have recently been disappointing. Also Orocobre lowering FY17 production guidance.
Orocobre lowered FY17 production guidance to 12-12,500 tonnes (from 15,000) due to production issues ("pond inventory management requirements"). Also FY18 guidance (albeit significantly higher) included selling some lower quality (technical grade) lithium (that sells at lower price), and their planned hydroxide plant.
Galaxy Resources second shipment of spodumene was delayed due to bad weather and road closures. Galaxy has guided for 160ktpa of spodumene in 2017. So far they have delivered 10kt and 14kt, totaling 24kt after 2 months, which is slightly behind schedule.
I thought about this part of the article and I am sure I can be forgiven for defending Galaxy for shipping 1,000 tonnes less of lithium concentrate. - Of course I would do that.
But then I was thinking more about that part of the article and enquiry and finger pointing made by
@Green56FJ and
@R.C. which it was raised that I speak with Joe and I was open with that. By that association it has been insinuated that I am cut from the same cloth just as the market is treating all lithium stocks the same as a result of the downward movement of the ORE share price as a result of it's lowered production guidance. - It has had me pondering the following:
If Orocobre's production guidance is lower for FY17 that is likely to increase lithium prices and benefit all lithium stocks. - Even the ones that will never send a single shipment, but are just a part of the bubble stock grouping.
- So whilst lithium supply retracts a little, the price would likely rise so it might in fact turn out to be a bit on a non-issue if managed effectively?
The other thing that has been circling in my mind is that of the criticism of Joe. - Reminding you all that I am here to learn and share.
I have been wondering why would Joe -who is generally so measured and cool be a great deal more assertive with his commentary of Orocobre?
- Is it because they reflect so badly on better quality stocks like GXY?
- Bring brine or Argentinian investment into disrepute?
- Because he feels management are being dishonest with their reporting?
- Or something really personal between him and management?
The first question I ponder from my own view as Galaxy being the better stock. But I will concede that the ORE share price has done a great deal better than GXY on a share price comparison had we all held exactly the same amount of shares over the years. But we did all buy into the same thing and that is lithium, which leads me to the next question RE: Orocobre bringing Argentinian investment into disrepute. Which is possible. The unfortunate truth is whenever investors have considered Galaxy's Sal De Vida they have looked at the shortcomings of ORE and tarred it with the same brush which shouldn't be the case. - I am sure holders of ORE would feel the same if the shoe was on the other foot and all of GXY assets belonged to ORE and all the ORE assets belonged to GXY. - I am just expressing my frustration as a result of the performance of the company, not the share price.
Jumping the 3rd question we come to the last RE: is there something really personal between Joe and management? - That answer can only be provided by those two parties.
Though the one that stands out in my mind is that of, maybe Joe feel that management has been dishonest with their reporting.
Wasn't it only recently that the company advised the market that Olaroz was operating at name plate of 17,500 tonnes per annum? - Then only a few months later we see a pull back of around 5,000 tonnes or roughly 30% of output.
I dunno, maybe there are other things that people can point to. But it does seem to be the common theme that he has doubts about the operation and the information that has been presented and as some here have pointed out he has got it right time and time again.
Except the last tweet where Richard is still there. - Though maybe there is something brewing? Something needs to give when the leader has been in the job and 5 years after construction the plant is still not performing. Galaxy disposed of Iggy Tan, however after he left with his golden parachute there was the matter of debt to resolve which the company has worked hard at and was fortunate to be able to offload Jiangsu to Tianqi.
- Does Orocobre have something to sell in order to get out of their debt?
- Would a capital raising still be plausible even though the share price has gone down from its heights of around $5.
- Or will the company finally get Olaroz on track?
- Maybe TTC will make an offer to acquire more ownership in the JV whilst the opportunity is there?
- Could Joe be right and its time for a change?
It's a bit of a long post however just wanted to lay out some thoughts and see what is presented in return.
