avm potential shareprice

Bored on a rainy day so here's my take on AVM's potential shareprice based on following parameters:

- LME spot Cu price US$2.80/lb
- A$/US exchange rate $0.80
- pe x6 (EBITDA)
- capex of US$309M up to Oct '09

Start at Jan '07
Dikulushi 22000tpa HMS + 3rd party smelting (AVM 90%)
Kulu 16000tpa HMS concentrate sale only (AVM 80%)
6 x US$97M pa + net cash US$143M; AVM A$15.60

Jul-Sept'07
Dikulushi 22000tpa HMS + 3rd party smelting (AVM 90%)
Kulu 16000tpa HMS concentrate sale only (AVM 80%)
Kinsevere 25000tpa HMS + EAF black copper (AVM 95%)
6 x US$191M pa + net cash US$144M; AVM A$27.80

Jan-Mar'08
Dikulushi 22000tpa HMS + 3rd party smelting (AVM 90%)
Kulu 16000tpa HMS + EAF black copper (AVM 80%)
Kinsevere 25000tpa HMS + EAF black copper (AVM 95%)
6 x US$218M pa + net cash US$181M; AVM A$32.00

Oct-Dec'09
Dikulushi 22000tpa HMS + EAF (AVM 90%)
Kulu 16000tpa HMS + EAF (AVM 80%)
Kinsevere 60000tpa SX-EW (AVM 95%)
6 x US$417M pa + net cash US$307M; AVM A$64.50

All on a pe x6 - Dikulushi has minimum 6 yrs underground from late '07 with resource open, Kulu tailings has 10+ yr life, Kinsevere has 20+ yr life @ 60ktpa - all funded out of cashflow with no debt.

Above numbers exclude any value attributed to planned further expansion of Kinsevere SX-EW to 120ktpa (shareprice would be A$115 given above parameters), probable Mutoshi operation before 2010, the rest of their DRC tenements (even the stuff MWE is earning into), Zambian tenements, Itogon in the Philippines......

Just trying to put AVM share price into perspective with other stocks that get hypothetically valued on HC based upon "in-ground" resource at peak commodity price and/or earning multiples of 10-15........

For anyone that's interested it's worth having a listen to AVM's year end conference call still available at following link

http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEvent.cgi?eventID=1739980