CTP 6.00% 5.3¢ central petroleum limited

SH Skype Thursday 16/3, page-6

  1. 7,882 Posts.
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    Some edits - hope this helps
    Here's the Q&A summary

    Q: can mac buy shares during offer period?

    A: Yes, but cant vote on them (But it does void a vote)

    Q: How much capital does CTP need and what for?
    A:
    $40M to prove up 10yr reserves and demothball

    Q: Who are the other potential suppliers into NGP in the 2 year term?
    A:
    Noone as everyone else is unconventional and moratorium stuffs em. NT PWC could upset the show though with Blacktip gas

    Q: What might happen to CTP if NO goes through?
    A: almost certainly drop to 10C and possibly never recover without investment grade backing and cash guarantees for GSAs. This is the only reason GSAs havent been signed yet and GSAs are waiting to for minimum mid June 2017 until vertigan arbitration rules allow investment grade transport decisions (this is the EARIEST time and rules will be more certain by December 2017).

    Q: Likelyhood that CVNs are realised 100% or exploration stalled?
    A:
    If the resource is any good the CVNs will be good. In essence RC totally agreed with my analogy that MAC would be stupid to 'cut off their nose to spite their face'

    Q:What does the future hold for CTP’s Helium assets?
    A: Santos must drill the Southern Amadeus as its part of their JV committment. CVNs will capture helium

    Q:With 20M could you drill 2 Stairway wells, plus workovers? These well would not have to be connected immediatly.
    A: No

    Q:What about a minimum value to for the CVN's to shareholdsers - say 10 cents - A Possible sweetner?
    A: These CVNs are a first of their kind in Australia and we're lucky they are offering anything at all. This is zero risk for SHers

    Q: According to the agreement we are still entitled to receive offers from other parties. The only point is the board is restricted to only advise Bidco not shareholders so Bidco can potentially upgrade their offer if they wish. Correct??
    A: missed his answer

    Q:What is the realistic chance of an upgraded offer??
    A: No serious comment made

    Q:how long will the shortage last and do you agree this is a cease the moment scenario?
    A: Emphatically agreed and went on for a few minutes to express how serious the number of jobs at risk are. Glass, bricks, metal, fertilizer, plastics - 75% of gas is used for non-energy end uses.

    Q: mereenie gas going into NT pipe is not to NGP quality. What spend is required for 20PJ/Annum gas processing to get to NGP spec in particular ethane removal?
    A: Nitrogen removed by Jemena, hopeful that spec can be achieved (I assume with blending of mereenie and palm valley / dingo however this is contingent with extraction of additional gas from PV and Dingo to improve blended quality)

    Q: How long do you think this East Coast gas squeeze will go on for? - 3 to 4 years?...before the International price for Gas becomes the norm?
    A: I missed response To this

    Q:Would not need as an expensive a well if it was only to prove reserves.
    A: Not true

    Qo u think tThe PM would jump in and garner the Gas exports from Gladstone - if crisis in manuf jobs was gas
    Aolitical suicide.

    Q: Do you feel that your decisions have let down the shareholders and as a MD you have not delivered on what you originally set out to do?
    A: he feels he has achieved all of what he hoped to for the SHers but the equity market screwed us

    Q: You mentioned potential billions of dollars mac can make yet do not see much chance of an increase in their bid?
    A: billions!!!?? (This was a case of misinterpretation and RC corrected - if Mac could make 1.2B over the life of the co It would mean finding more than 2000PJ of which 50% is Santos')

    Q: Would not a better CVN offer then reflect the potential opportunity?
    A: Like i said - CVNs are a first. this affords us the opportunity to double our money at no risk.

    Q: Mac clearly understand the potential payback on this project, as they have increased their bid AND have added up to double the bid as the CVN. Why do you feel the board has been unable to attract interest outside of Mac?
    A: Says it all about the equity market

    It was a good meeting and RC is the same old straight shooting good guy hes always been - no BS and nothing to hide.

    It will all come out in the wash during April after the explanatory mail out when Im sure he will gather the support of many more shareholders, together with a state wide roadshow.

    It will be a YES vote, unless, an equity angel comes down from heaven and raises the stakes.

    I hope this helps.
 
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