My ideal timeframe (if no stuff-ups) is:
1: 6/4/07 - running string for cementing
2: 7/4/07 - cementing underway
3: 9/4/07 - cementing complete, withdrawing string
4: 10/4/07 - preparing for cement bond log - may have to wait for schlumberger - how long depends where the equipment is and if it is being used elsewhere.
5: 11-14/4/07 - Cement Bond Log (CBL) complete.
IF cement log OK:
6: 15/4/07 - running string to recommence drilling
7: 16/4/07 - restart drilling
8: 18/4/07 - likely timeframe for leadville & McCracken targets hit (?shows of gas/oil)
9: 19/4/07 - retrieving drill string
10: 21/4/07 - running wireline log
11: wait for log results - 1-2 weeks while drill rig removed and workover rig is moved into place.
12: early May to end May - Flow testing Gas +/- Oil.
There are however several possible holdups:
1. Cementing not adequate lower section - variable delay between 5: and 6: of two to 6 weeks.
2. Wireline logs indication HCs in non-fractured target formations - I would imagine they would only consider fracturing likely pay zones - esp Leadville/McCracken - possibly Alkali Gulch for gas and Ismay for oil (I think this is where they had oil shows. Pinkerton trail is laready highly fractured. Fracturing can take weeks and requires special equipment and expertise.
3. Other unexpected stuffups (eg string breaks at depth, cementing tubing stuck again!)
The major risk is likely cement innadequacy - though they have stated that "cementing was successful" for the lower segment - If they are happy with it there is a fair chance of success on CBL.
Hope this comes off.
My price expectations:
Cementing complete (ie no stuck pipe!) $1.20-$1.30
CBL OK and running string to drill - variable - $1.25-$1.60
Drill complete - gas shows LV/McC - high pressure - $1.70-$2.00+ - show only - $1.40-$1.70
Wireline - good HC concentration + fracturing in LV/McC - $2.50+
Accurate resource estimate cannot be made on one well - though the guestimate of 440BCF can be refined depending on what they find. If flow test positive and what they find is consistent with the expected 440BCF total then I would expect SP up to $3.00 pending further wells.
An interesting and hopefully highly profitable next three months to all holders !
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