HF-MACE P3 [ PART 4 ]

http://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novartis-serelaxin-misses-endpoint-phase-3-heart-failure-trial

Good morning Holders,

Following on from Vinn’s post last Thursday 23^rd March, I caught up with the Specialist again over the weekend..

Following our discussion, I thought you may be interested in some points of note regarding the failed Novartis trial.

Namely:

1. Novartis trial primary endpoints were 180 day cardiovascular death AND occurrence or worsening heart failure over 5 days, that is major adverse cardiac events (MACE).

• Remember the Pseudo Scientists (shorters) saying again and again how MACE was irrelevant and the only thing that mattered was ejection fraction.
• Wrong! What the FDA wants, is to see an effect on MACE and mortality rates.

2. Also compare the size of Novartis’ trial at 6,600 patients to get a result versus MSB’s CHF trial of 600 patients. Looking at statistical significance on a far smaller population - can only gradually lead to even our self professed financial analysts (on MSB thread) understanding the significance of the effect of the MPC cells on heart failure.


3. Blue chip investors valued Novartis’s Phase 3 heart failure asset at just under US$4 billion (on Novartis’ current market cap of $193.4 billion and the drop of 2%). Testament again to the fact that a few of our ‘master’ HC financial commentators , are at best storytellers and actually incapable of looking at the whole nine yards when it comes to assessing large-scale advances in Medicine.

Don’t be dusted ! Please DYOR !

Good week to all holders.