Probably less than 4 weeks to lift off, but will post about that tomorrow. Prospektor, I agree with your general view except for the following. My research indicates a very high degree of optimism as to the nature of Manbarrum, that is, a repeating MVT structure. It is imagined that the general hypothesis will be proved this season, given the extensive drilling campaign. Next point is that if you look at the nature of Sandy Creek MVT Pod, you will note that it is near surface. The MD said in his presentation that this means low capex and low opex. MVT's are highly sought after for this very reason. They will therefore carry a premium. In Oz, other companies are pursuing new zinc deposits, but they are way underground, and will cost a mountain to bring to production. Given the tie in with CBH's Sorby Hills, the MVT style of deposit, the 50km of strike, the highly likely success of proving up other Pods, I would have to think 10% of the in ground value of the resource is closer to the money. I actually agree with your general view at 5%, but not in this case. Have a look at other major MVT pods in the history of mining...how many Pods greater than 15mt...hardly any...this is special, as far as I can tell.
So, I think Sandy Creek will be proven up at 15mt at 4% this season, as a minimum. That's $2.5bA in ground value by itself. Given the extensive drilling programme, the magnetic work done, the highly prospective anomalies, and don't forget all that data they have from Aquaitaine and the BHP JV's (which proved some very nice mineralisation in other areas), I just think there is an extremely high chance of doubling the resource this season. I think that's where the conservative 2 bucks comes from.
Frankly, I think this is worth $1 right now. I cannot see how it is not, and we would probably be there but for our old mates RAB Capital.
So, for me $2 is realistic, and beyond that it just comes down to the genius of the team, and a wee bit of luck with say the Browns anomaly. Bear in mind also, Manbarrum is not their only asset.
There has been precious little local promotion to date. I believe that is about to change !!!
I think there will be some renewed interest in the next few weeks as we are now getting very close to the start of the season. The Pom Pom girls have dusted off their outfits, and the boys have done their pre-season workouts. We are ready for the game to begin.
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