a correction is near . . ., page-50

Armstrong's 8.6 cycle peak has been a bit of a fizzer in many ways.

It did come in perfectly on time but it seems other cycles have muted it's effects.

His cycle is really just a repeated H&S pattern.

A left shoulder coincided with the '87 crash, a right shoulder was basically the '02 SP500 highs of Sep '02 and a major low was the SP500 '02 low.

It is interesting that a head 2 cycles ago was the all time high of the Nikkei.

We have just had another head and once again it is the Nikkei that has had the weakest recovery since the late Feb sell off, and is looking very vulnerable.

April '09 will be a right shoulder and is the most dangerous time to remain long. The fact that that is also in the weak decennial period of year 9 into year 2, means it will be even more significant.

My expectation is for a deep bottom into Nov this year that may last into Mar '08 followed by a rally into Apr '09 and then another big bear.