that's an interesting scenario. I don't think it's quite right because the warrants aren't quoted and it'd be rare for a convertible bond desk to let go of their options - managing options is their raison d'etre.
However, what convertible arbitrage guys tend to do is
dynamically delta hedge their exposure to the head stock. In simple terms, what this means is that if the value of their option is expected to move by 0.5c for every 1c move in the underlying stock, then they would be long the 55.5m warrants and short 27.75m of the stock, so that for small moves in the stock, their position is hedged.
That's fine when moves are small, but when a stock moves in a big way like QIN has, the delta of the option changes, which means that to hedge the warrant you need to buy or sell the underlying to match.
So plugging the numbers for that warrant into a black-scholes calculator you get this:
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
1 |
QIN price |
Delta |
delta hedge short position |
2 |
1.45 |
69 |
38,295,000 |
3 |
1.215 |
55 |
30,525,000 |
4 |
1 |
39 |
21,645,000
|
If the owners of the warrants have been delta hedging, this would explain a couple of things:
1) Why the short position in TFC/QIN has been so consistently high
2) Some of the buying demand and short covering since the lows - if the warrants were delta hedged then at $1 that would generate demand for about ~17m shares.
Interesting either way.