QIN 0.00% 29.5¢ quintis ltd

Shorters using Warrants to limit their risk, page-7

  1. 3,053 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2
    yep I'm aware of how they came to be, but a convertible bond is effectively a normal bond with an option attached to it - the only difference with this issue was that the warrants were detached and separate to the bond, the economics and payoffs are very similar. The people who trade and issue this type of debt are convertible arbitrage desks at investment banks and specialist conv arb hedge funds.


    I also went back and plugged in how much those warrants were worth at issue.

    QIN warrant volatility.png

    As you can see from the chart TFC was in a bit of a volatility lull at the time of about 35%, 8 years to exercise and it was trading at around 91c according to the announcement. That made the options worth (very back of cigarette packet) about 19c each, or 7c per $1 of bond. Use the long term average of about 45% volatility and you get 27c each, or 10c per $1 of bond. 10% makes a bond fund manager very horny!

    Either way, those 55m warrants are now worth approx $11m, and at ~1.50 they were worth double that. I'd bet that a convertible bond fund manager - or any bond manager worth their salt - would have hedged that exposure.
    Last edited by hottuna: 07/04/17
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add QIN (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.