friday spi, page-86

Have done my analysis for EOD and EOW.

EW does suggest 2 more small legs up. It suggests we are in 4 of 3 since the March low.

That allows for a 5 of 3 up, a 4th down and a final 5th up to complete, which fits the McLaren time frame of a 3rd or 4th June top for our market.

Monthly RSI on SPI is the same as end of APril '87, which had a May high and pullback into June before a final 90 day rally into Sep.

However, although XJO/XAO can be construed as holding trend, SPI has not.

An increase in SPI premium today is more a negative that a positive.

All momentum indicators on daily have broken down and while that can be just the beginning of momentum loss it at least suggest the end is nigh.

A 5 period RSI, I keep, has only reached the 80 level since the March lows and suggests this move up as neutral to weak, as strange as that sounds, when one looks at the price gains.

There was much to suggest that price and time at 18th April was very significant, just as there is to suggest tonight is significant in the US.

My conclussion is that we are late in this move and the benefit of the doubt is with the downside, at least till end of June.

Any new highs before then should be regarded as suspect, but not out of the question.

How high could new highs go? Probably in the 6500's, but that is not my expectation.