Posted: 26/10/06 20:13 Hotcopper Radio: AGM on BoardRoom Radio Posted By: ghosta Views: 210
Post #: 1332543 (Start of thread) Sentiment: Hold IP: 58.169.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: Stock Held
Time for a reality check. Many posters on this site are keen to see huge advances in the share price of AGM, and some are wondering why the price hasn’t risen to $1, given the excellent prospects for the future. AGM has already experienced phenomenal growth in its share price- it has more than doubled this year alone. I have been accumulating shares in AGM for nearly seven years and I have seen a 12X return on one parcel. Well I’m sorry to tell you that it won’t reach $1- not for a few years if at all. Some of you will see this statement as near treasonous! Ill explain why I think 50c by late next year is a reasonable objective. First, the rises this year have already factored in the start of production, and to some degree the possibility of further finds of Nickel in the area. The Saxon deposit could be a huge high grade resource or it may to too low grade to be economically feasible. One drill hole is simply not enough to make any sort of assumption. Secondly there are nearly 700 million shares out there. So any profits have to be divided up A LOT. Most shares were issued in the 5-15c range, and will return excellent profit to those who still hold them. It must be remembered that we are are looking at a low grade resource. Even though mining costs are low, twice as much ore needs to be mined and processed to get the same result most other mines are getting. Nickel prices are very high now- amazing. But world production is set to increase by 10% next year; if this occurs the price will drop quite a bit, who knows how much. The Australian Bureau of Resource Economics predicts next years prices will average $18900 Au per tonne. They may or not be accurate, but theirs is an educated guess, whereas all you and I can do is hope prices will be maintained at record levels. But that price of $18900 is still a good one, quite profitable for all shareholders! Oh one small thing. Processing of ore won’t start until the 3rd quarter next year. So when will the first shipment reach China? 12 months time at the earliest! (I’m assuming the Bluestone deal doesn’t happen- even if it does it can only produce a modest output at high cost, a few million profit (divide that by 700mill shares!)). So whats the nickel price then? More likely lower than the prevailing 2007 price unfortunately. By all means talk up this stock. Get all your friends to buy in at 38c. They will probably get a 25% return on their money in 12 months. Well worth mortgaging the house for!
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Subject: re: reality check needed here
Stock Code: AGM - ALLEGIANCE MINING NL
Posted: 27/10/06 00:38 Hotcopper Radio: AGM on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: capman Views: 169
Post #: 1332945 (In Reply to msg #1332543 from ghosta) Sentiment: Buy IP: 203.220.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: No Stock Held
ghosta,
900,000 tonnes to produce 9,000 tonnes of nickle per annum.
labor costs of AUS$30 per tonne for $27,000,000 per annum.
lets assume AUS$18,900 per tonne of nickle is realised (very unlikely in my opinion). current price is approx AUS$40,000 per tonne.
$18,900 x 9,000 = $170,100,000 per annum
$170,100,000 - $27,000,000 = $143,100,000 per annum.
$143,100,000 - $10,000,000 (admin, exploration etc) = $133,100,000 per annum
$133,100,000 - $39,930,000 (30% tax) = $93,170,000 NPAT per annum
lets be even more conservative and discount it by 15%.
NPAT per annum = $79,194,500
current resource gives a 12 year mine life so lets use a p/e of 12.
12 x $79,194,500 = market cap of $950,334,000
$950,334,000 divided by 700,000,000 shares = $1.36 per share.
i know my calculations are pretty rough but 50c in 12 month seems a little on the shy side.
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Subject: agm undervalued emerging nickel producer
Stock Code: AGM - ALLEGIANCE MINING NL
Posted: 27/10/06 05:51 Hotcopper Radio: AGM on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: Mycontacts Views: 155
Post #: 1333044 (In Reply to msg #1332945 from capman) Sentiment: Buy IP: 203.214.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: No Stock Held
Ghosha I assume you have sold out and want to get back cheaper. As soon as they do get into production this stock will be closer to $1 thern 50c. The Saxon discovery alone will double the value. Ian Levy is talking about doubling production very quickly due to the discovery. Your figure of $18000 is probably $US not Aussie. BHP is predicting strong commodity prices over next few years. Production inc of 10% is very unlikely if they only increased by a few percent this year and its very simple no new mines are coming into production for at least 2 years. And when they do they have to deal with the increase in demand from India China etc.
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Subject: ghosta......
Stock Code: AGM - ALLEGIANCE MINING NL
Posted: 27/10/06 07:11 Hotcopper Radio: AGM on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: dwecke2000 Views: 135
Post #: 1333089 (In Reply to msg #1332543 from ghosta) Sentiment: Buy IP: 144.138.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: Stock Held
After all your spouting at Aussie stock you have arrived at HC...LOLOLOLOLO.....you still wanting to buy at stupid prices..I told you pay up or shut up as what you spout is C?R?A?P...anyone who believes you is of his head..WHY...???...because you got no idea..STAY AT aUSSIE STOCK AS NO ONE BELIEVES YOU THERE...pay up or dont buy...more for ME...LOLOLO...you are a funny fellow...
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Subject: re: agm undervalued emerging nickel producer Stock Code: AGM - ALLEGIANCE MINING NL Posted: 27/10/06 07:21 Hotcopper Radio: AGM on BoardRoom Radio Posted By: capman Views: 135 Post #: 1333097 (In Reply to msg #1333044 from Mycontacts) Sentiment: Buy IP: 203.221.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: No Stock Held mycontacts,
ghosta says he is a holder but wants a reality check.
who would hold an emerging producer that has a limited upside of a mere 25%??
i figure you are correct and he appreciates the upside is considerably greater than 25% and would love to buy at lower levels.
Posted: 27/10/06 07:37 Hotcopper Radio: AGM on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: dwecke2000 Views: 124 Post #: 1333111 (In Reply to msg #1333097 from capman) Sentiment: Buy IP: 144.138.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: Stock Held
Capman....Ghosta posted on Aussie stock...he sold and wanting to buy back...so thats what the story is..if he holds shares..I doubt it as all his posts are like that..he says he wants to buy at 31cents....he is full of it..so I dont believe anything he posts as he is a downramper..
Posted: 27/10/06 08:02 Hotcopper Radio: AGM on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: capman Views: 122
Post #: 1333145 (In Reply to msg #1333111 from dwecke2000) Sentiment: Buy IP: 203.221.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: No Stock Held
dwecke,
thanks.
nickel is down 4% so he may get lucky and pick some up a little lower today but i suspect there is a rerating of agm underway and with 114,000 tonnes ($4.5 billion worth) of nickel and with upgrades expected there is plenty of upside to come over the coming 12 months if all goes to plan so i wont be taking too much notice of short term swings.
cheers
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AGM Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
