Lithium demand is growing exponentially.
-AJM has had mcap of over $200m since a year ago, 2 years before anticipated production.
-PLS mcap even much more, years before they say they'd start producing
-KDR also over $120m
After proving reserves, all these and others have to show are dirt and holes. Only Gxy managed to start production in 2016, and Nmt in 2017. Ajm and pls aiming to produce this year but more delays will not be a surprise.
In contrast AGY is now pumping brine, with 654k hectares plus substantial area expected to be added accdg to most recent Ann. Stage 2 funding agreement expected shortly. Your valuation is based on stage 2 with a paltry 1500 tonnes, and I think your calcs didn't even translate the conservative lithium price to AUD, another 30% increment. However, AGY has a very good technical team and management and is determined to fast track stage 3, at 20,000 tonnes. As
@Quanta mentioned, it's not unusual the market will attribute premium to a company with such objective and a clear path to achieve them. The milestones achieved in a short period this year demonstrates that AGY mgt is fast tracking its projects, and with funding to support it, this is not a day dream. I agree with
@unsinkable the market has not assessed AGY's value until now and I think this is because AGY has achieved progress very quickly in recent months that the market was sleeping.
This comes from 13 March Ann and just 2 weeks later, 2 MOU's were signed, CCK and SGP, who are now doing their DD. As indicated in the Ann, stage 3 is likely to be part of discussions now. Stage 3 will be at 20,000 tonnes which should make AGY a multibillion dollar company. Now the mcap would not jump from $66m to $1b. But I can see the mcap attracting further re-rate and match if not exceed KDR or AJM as it marches towards stage 3's billion dollar value.
13 March Ann.
Airguide executives have held key meetings with several significant tier one strategic companies in the Chinese lithium battery sector to discuss Argosy’s development strategy for the Rincon Lithium Project, including the potential to consider investment
to fast-track Stage 2 development of the Project, and potential relationships for funding, off-take,
partnership or other value-adding commercial agreements in consideration for Stage 3 development of the project.
(20min delay)