Hi guys,
I'm opening this thread as it seems these charts keep popping up
this can be the charting thread for comparison when every quarterly and half yearly financial reports come out, I thank
@Taurean7 for his time and excellent non bias opinions associated with these charts and any he adds in the future as I don't think I'm alone when I say he's done an amazing job with them.
Cash receipts continue onwards and upwards. For the record, the updated quarterly chart below needs no comment.
The detailed revenue information provided for CY15 and CY16 allows an analysis of the rapid growth occurring in sales. Again, the half-yearly chart below says it all.
Revenue of A$7.4M in the last quarter represents an annualised run rate of $30M, which may prove very conservative as a CY2017 estimate.
The charts below are based on the financials reported by the Company up until the December 2016 quarter. They should prove to be more accurate and more convenient since the “bloody costs” have been taken into account.
One graphic (left) shows half-yearly increases in both revenue and expenses, as would be expected for a business in growth phase. The associated line chart (right) displays the trend that exists in profitability, expressed simply as the ratio of revenue to expenses. A company becomes profitable once this ratio reaches 100%. The thin red line on that chart is a trendline regression fitted to the profitability data, which allows forward projection to 100% and indicates when this level is most likely to be achieved.
A similar exercise has been undertaken using cash flow information taken from 4C reports. The line chart below is a plot of the ratio of cash receipts to quarterly expenses. A business becomes cash flow neutral when the 100% ratio is achieved. Again a regression fitted trendline gives a good indication of the likely timing of this achievement.
As shown my
previous post, the trend in the Cash Flow Ratio indicates CFN is likely to be reached at the end of this current quarter, which is consistent with recent Company guidance.
The corresponding receipts and expenses data that generate that Ratio are displayed in the graphic below together with their regression fit trendlines. Operating Expenses show trend compound growth of 21.4% per quarter. Cash Receipts display trend compound growth of 51.4% per quarter.
The trend value for receipts overtakes expenses in this current quarter at $8.7M, suggesting that CFN would be reached when both amounts are around this level.
The trend in expenses may be partially distorted. At a little over $8M in the December 2016 quarter expenses were well above trend. This is likely to be related to costs for the one-off move to new facilities. The half-yearly shows an increase of $1.5M in the purchase costs of ‘property, plant and equipment’ compared with the previous corresponding period.
It will be good to add new charts to these every 12 weeks or so, the charts above already speak volumes as to where the company is heading IMO, the great thing about charts is that they hold no bias, they are what they are!
Thanks again
@Taurean7
Cheers.
