I dont think it is relevant that investors must be prepared to admit that they 'might be wrong'. Any investor who thought otherwise (regardless of their methods or beliefs re: trading) would be fooling themselves.
Further, Fama's efficient market hypothesis (at least at the extreme interpretation) doesn't think that an investor can systematically produce alpha (alpha = returns above a benchmark (say, the all ords return)) through fundamental nor technical analysis.
The EMH says that the best indicator or prices tomorrow, is the price today. Seeing as all investors have the same information (we're not taking insider info into account), then mispricings dont exist. The EMH says that markets are efficient - this means prices are fair and that prices react unbiasedly (they dont over or underreact) and instantaneously to new information. Obviously this isnt correct, otherwise there would be no price movements unless information comes out, but what it does mean is that one cannot predict that bias systematically.
Anyway, that is far off the topic of Dave's first post... the question was does anyone know any papers that believe and produce evidence about technical analysis.
I honestly dont know of any reputable sources.
You could have a look at some of what John Okunev has written about currency trading and see if that applies to you. Otherwise, I'm not sure.
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