Knowledge, you suggest in your last post that
"in normal circumstances the bidder normally pays a premium and consequently it is the bidder which trades at the discount - but not here, and why is that? it's because the market is telling us TMR bid is undervalued"
You seem to be mixing up 3 issues: the bid premium being paid, whether an offer undervalues a target and how stocks trade up to the acceptance condition being met.
A stock trades at a premium to an offer only when there is a good chance of a higher offer being tabled by another bidder or the offeror. In other words, it trades at a premium when the current offer undervalues the target AND there is a good chance that something might happen to remedy that situation.
Given that it is trading at a discount (the arb opportunity from my last post is close to closing now), the market is telling you more about the discount that you have to take now if you don’t want to sell into the offer, rather than anything about the underlying value per se.
All that said, with 11 weeks past this should have reached the acceptance condition.
Can someone please remind us:
1. when the offer expires;
2. whether the acceptance condition was 70%; and
3. give views on whether TMR should/would consider waiving it?
DYOR. Disclosure - I have accepted the offer.
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