I'd like to add a postscript to my earlier post to emphasise a few things. I'm a non-holder so for those who think non-holders shouldn't be posting, time for you to switch off - no whingeing if you don't like what you read. All just my opinion as a long time biotech observer, and I'm not concerned whether you're an investor in AHZ or not - that's entirely your choice.
I will not be making any responses in relation to this post. I already know who won't be able to help themselves with feeble attempts to discredit it and there's no point in arguing with dummies who know nothing about the science. There are as usual a few good posters to whom I say if you disagree then so be it... that's what makes markets.
1. Recent vaccine results. I'm absolutely gobsmacked that Frazer and his crew have not been slammed for conducting a time wasting expensive trial which from the outset could not have yielded significant results due to the sample size regardless of the outcome.
ashishak1 - "As said in the Webinar, The study was for safety and efficacy (i.e. immune response).
Even if it's statistically significant, the 'power of the study' would be very low."
Who conducts a trial of non-significance?
Bottom line - my interpretation as a non-scientist but familiar with statistics, is the trial was near worthless and its results dismal.
Some would insist that safety was determined - surely Phase1 is designed to confirm that?
As for efficacy - again a non-starter because trials could never yield statistically significant results from the outset.
I'll leave the 'experts' to figure out why, with results long known, the Webinar was presented at this time at all.
2. Selling off the vaccine project. What exactly would they have to sell? AHZ does not own the IP.
russ -" 1/ AHZ doesn't own the IP Qpharm does."
I understand AHZ has a slice of Frazer's company? try selling it back to him and see how you go. According to Russ AHZ own rights but no one knows what those rights are, so until the vaccine trials show significant positive results who would be remotely interested in buying such a thing? If you do some real research you'll find that all companies having a herpes-like vaccine program use different methodologies so they are scientifically oriented in quite different directions. Frazer's research would be unlikely to be of use to any of them.
The only way for AHZ to handle the vaccine program IMO is as a write-off. I'd be surprised in the event of a write-off if the sp didn't improve overnight. Normally with write-offs the sp falls because the toxic asset is nevertheless regarded as an asset in accountancy-speak, but in this instance I'd bet it would go the other way. Relief all round as a continuing burden was finally lifted.
3. Unqualified posters. There would not be a single repetitive poster who understands the technical aspects of what Frazer's team are doing. Are these posters qualified in biochemistry? are they immunologists? do they even have any medical training which entitles them to make statements such as:
suckii - "....and what I am saying to you so I can help change your view before you get hurt even more when ADMEDUS doubles and triples very soon."
does this statement even sound as if it comes from an educated person? a cursory look at his other posts reveals other gems such as "The speed that things are getting done in (AHZ) are unheard of in the corporate world." Statements like these are both inaccurate and childish, and would be dismissed by any knowledgeable reader. He sounds like a schoolkid on Facebook.
lexcorp - "I've had my medical advisor look at the announcement and she says it's a low number of participants just to test safety. She says they need a randomised controlled trial. "
Who's your 'medical advisor' lexcorp? From posts he made a couple of years ago, his wife is a nurse and it was from her he got his 'advice'. She also says they need a randomised controlled trial - how very illuminating, maybe she should pass on the advice to Frazer...
lexcorp is also fond of saying that he has a 20-year timeframe for vax success if necessary, or words to that effect - but even if Frazer was given 20 years how sure could you be of success? Lexcorp is mistaken, it's not time that's of prime importance but whether you are on the right path to begin with and results to date hardly support that hypothesis.
All I can say is if you choose to take advice from anonymous unqualified posters who have been singing the same song for years then expect to say goodbye to a chunk of your money. Many have no doubt learned that lesson already.
4. AHZ future directions. I've already posted that in my opinion AHZ needs to focus on what it can do best and forget about chasing rainbows when the real solution to moving forward lies under its very nose. I'm referring to their tissue engineering program.
It has been hard enough for AHZ to make headway with Cardiocel, but at least with Cardiocel potential investors would know what they are getting into. Cardiocel is a clearly understood medical product totally under AHZ's control (going back a couple of years I thought they were wrong to establish a manufacturing facility themselves but they seem to have gotten a handle on that.) The point about writing off their vaccine program is that it's a permanent distraction to AHZ and only brings confusion to potential investors.
If there was any synergy between Cardiocel and the vaccines then perhaps there would be some point in pursuing both - but I maintain the vaccine program not only being expensive and yielding dismal results is detrimental to the pursuit of their tissue engineering efforts. Why detrimental? because investors willing to support AHZ's tissue engineering efforts are put off by the thought that profits from the sales of Cardiocel would find their way into Frazer's bottomless money-pit. If Frazer wants to pursue the program to Phase2B fine - but let him find his own funding.
I would never put any money into AHZ while it continues to fund a vaccine program for Herpes which has seen BILLIONS of dollars by the biggest US pharmas already wasted. Actually, Frazer is no longer looking for a cure apparently but something which ameliorates the outbreaks of Herpes - getting a bit tenuous even before more millions are spent?
The very least AHZ could do if it doesn't have the courage to write off its vaccine program is to spin off the vaccine project into its own separate black-hole company - let's see how much support
that company would get. A spin-off leaving AHZ as a 'clean' tissue engineering company would quickly show whether AHZ is capable of achieving success with a single focus or not. Going down the same path supporting both Cardiocel and the vaccines is not an option and clearly is not attractive to potential investors.
Right now AHZ needs a axe-wielding MD with a clear vision of where AHZ's best opportunities lie who is prepared to make the tough decisions.
5. The chart. First off, IT'S NOT MY CHART. It's a chart of the market's support for AHZ over the last couple of years. It's not something I've made up it's totally objective. For those posters who like to say that progress is 3 steps forward and 2 steps back, they can't even perform simple arithmetic. The truth with AHZ is that it has been 1 step forward and 2 steps back.
AHZ's share price is currently less than half of what it was prior to consolidation in 2015.
(Yes, I did forecast it at the time with the usual suspects countering with their feeble arguments that I didn't know what I was talking about....)
6. I'll keep looking at AHZ - it is an interesting bio company with real products - but until it performs radical surgery on itself it will never see any 'investment' money from me.
Charts follow.
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