My point is that the NPV is not good enough at the moment given the CAPEX required. The expansion study is welcome but further drilling could have been done earlier and/or in parallel with the PFS to increase the resource and potentially identify areas of high lithium and tin to improve the economics. As others have pointed out you cannot simply say that other companies production costs have increased by 50% and blame that. We should assume that costs will continue to increase in light of demand as per the recent Australian mining boom where labourers were getting $250k +.
The share price has dropped as a result of examination of the figures presented.
On the positive, if an offtake or jv/partnership or backer can be found and the economics improved then the price will rebound accordingly given valuations of $1.65 - $2.50. There is the option of increase the tonnage mined and increase the mine life which would reduce average costs of production. Also, if Lithium demand and prices exceed "the experts" long-term $10k per tonne then things look materially better.
Someone has to fund this venture and they want to be sure of the return on their investment, especially when asking for US$400m+.
Most holders were disappointed as the CAPEX and costs of production were higher than anticipated/hoped. The report did not sell itself well enough given some key information was buried in the detail of the document ie have flexibility to materially ramp down costs given significant variable costs. A better summary of key findings should have been provided.
Regards
Andrew
EMH Price at posting:
88.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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