Its exploration similar to oil and gas exploration. There's no guarantees but its far from guesswork. Lots of oil and gas companies are getting into the field as the skills and techniques used are very similar (BPT, WPL, VPE, LKO are ASX listed oilers with geothermal interests and Chevron is a big producer internationally).
The figure of $10 million would be referring to a deep production well. You don't go off drilling them unless you're pretty certain you have a viable resource.
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