WE TRIED to warn Full Disclosure readers not to take research papers too seriously, especially when they come from interested parties.
Brokers want us to keep spending, even when the private equity groups aren't. It's no surprise that David Browne's strategy at 150-year-old stockbroker Tolhurst involves setting up research departments.
But one line from a two-page Macquarie Research paper on the equities market sent the markets, the media and the Qantas share price into a spin yesterday.
Near the bottom of a table titled "Top 15 potential premiums PE could afford to pay", Macquarie Research gave Qantas a "potential share price" of a whopping $8.57.
That valued the national carrier at $17 billion, $6 billion more than what Airline Partners Australia was willing to pay.
Macquarie Research analyst Neale Goldston-Morris, one of the authors of the report, said his reasoning was simple — private equity would gear-up Qantas to the hilt, and therein lies the value. A profit upgrade from the airline has also helped.
Goldston-Morris stands by his team's $8.57 valuation, and the market certainly went for it.
Qantas shares soared 10¢ to a new high of $5.42 yesterday, just a fraction below APA's $5.45 offer.
Others were a little more sober with their revaluations of Qantas. UBS raised the stock to a "buy", and Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Paul Ryan upgraded the stock to "outperform", with a price target of $5.70 over the next three years.
Bell Potter Securities director of research Peter Quinton was more ambitious, saying Qantas was worth "at least $5.90 a share".
After selling its frequent-flyer operations, initiating a share buyback scheme and with further profit upgrades, he said it could be worth as much as $7 a share.
"We are being ripped off. The price that we are being asked to sell Qantas shares is disgraceful," he told clients.
To read Macquarie Research's report, go to theage.com.au/businessday.
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Last
$8.50 |
Change
-0.030(0.35%) |
Mkt cap ! $13.29B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$8.52 | $8.54 | $8.39 | $63.40M | 7.471M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 24671 | $8.47 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$8.51 | 32 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 24671 | 8.470 |
5 | 83700 | 8.460 |
3 | 49481 | 8.450 |
2 | 7835 | 8.440 |
1 | 500 | 8.420 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.510 | 32 | 1 |
8.530 | 26150 | 6 |
8.540 | 29108 | 3 |
8.550 | 114254 | 14 |
8.560 | 21873 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 12/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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