Hi Coit the chances of finding hydrocarbons has increased considerably with the use of modern 3D but the chance of finding commercial hydrocarbons probably hasn't changed a lot , 3D can't tell us with any certainty whether anomalies seen are Oil , gas or water , neither can it tell you the permeability or the Porosity of the formation it has to be drilled to be proven..
Which leads us to South FAN 1 and it is in the same situation , it has a very high chance of finding hydrocarbons but a much lower chance of finding commercial oil...it is however helped by the fact that as it can be tied back to SNE then it doesn't need a huge amount to be found to be commercial, providing it is the right quality of oil, also it has two chances being a stacked play...;-)
Just how lucky we were finding SNE is shown by despite having 9 successfull wells in a row, we have also had 3 other formations checked out and none of them had commercial oil at the location drilled, FAN 1, Bellatrix and the Aptian...the lsst two would be called dusters if drilled alone but we're let off because they were also very successfull appraisal wells in SNE...that luxury has gone now..
As for punters being held back by a commodity in decline, that is a few years away as the world continues to increase demand every year and is showing no evidence of that stopping for a while...the rate of the increase is probably slowing and the mix of hydrocarbons is trending more towards gas but it will be a slow change IMO...FARJOY and other large holders are seeing something different and that is a supply crunch ahead in the medium term at least...;-)
At the moment Oil is not in a bull market and the Shareprice reflects that..
Cheers Whisky
FAR Price at posting:
8.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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