The Brains Trust, page-3817

Welcome BTer’s to the first weekends Special BT Analysis (SBTA ... tried to get a clever acronym but BT goes with nuthin') Posts on this are is designed to be a bit free of the rules (whatever they are!!!)

I am just kicking this off & view it as way to tap into the brilliant resource that is the BT & share info (pun intended!) on specific subjects that are likely to impact future investment returns. It’s not designed as a hijack of the thread and anyone can obviously post anything they want on any subject but if anyone has anything to say on the subject maybe they can give a big heading SBTA POST to identify it???

This post is designed as an easy read on the subject and I rely heavily on web links so if nothing else peops might end up a bit more informed on the subject?

I will also post some charts just to add to the visual of what I am saying; they will all be monthly and have as much data as PRT allow me. The cahrt analysis will be very simple and restricted to a trend line and a fib here or there.

The weekends proposed topic is:

"The coming revolution in electric vehicles (EV) and driverless cars (DC)"


A few subjects/ideas/issues on why I think it’s a huge subject worthy of consideration:


DC; what are they?

Firsly DC are often referred to as autonomous vehicles; as far as I can tell they are the same thing. Essentially a computer drives the car NOT a human!

Suspect most of us generally know the details and a simple google reveals any missing links but here is a link that I thought useful;


Self Driving Cars Explained - Animated Infographic

and one on some of the questions that DC raise:

https://hbr.org/2017/04/hard-questions-on-our-transition-to-driverless-cars

and this vid explains why I get so excited about DC and consider they are a MUST for future liveable cities. In my day job I have done a bit on TMS (traffic Mangament Systems) …. You know traffic lights on the on ramps to freeways; variable speed signs and the like ….. baby steps in controlling the ever increasing traffic problem cities face. I really agree we have to get the “monkeys away from the steering wheel”.



So what will happen when they get introduced and how disruptive are they?
Think how quickly the automobile replaced the horse and cart OR for a more recent example ask Kodak how quickly the digital camera replaced their business.

What follows is a quick GJ assessment on which sectors will be disrupted by the technology;


Impact on Car Manufacturers?

Bottom line is all the big manufacturers are working on DC; Ford, BMW, GM, Volvo, Toyota etc however the market is being impacted by true disrupters with names like Tesla, Google, Uber and Intel in the market.

Lets look at a few charts;
Existing car manufacturers;

FORD



BMW


And the disruptors:

Tesla



Google


So when it cmes to investing in manufacturers not much on offer in OZ BUT like previous gold rushes where the people selling the picks and shovels were the ones who made $$$$$ just maybe there are a fleet of little ozzie tech companies ready to cash in? Don’t know who they are? Thoughts???

Future of oil; is it the end?
If you are as old as me you have seen lots of doomsday calls re oil; I remember in the 1980’s (I think?) we had about a decade of oil supply left apparently; even last year lots saying it was going to $15pb …. All these calls have been wrong; it seems much to my great surprise that right now there appears to be an endless supply.

So what will the impact be of a seemingly inevitable EV future? Read this;

http://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news/92592333/petrol-cars-will-vanish-in-eight-years-says-us-report


OIL chart




-Who are the winners? If Ev is the future a big tip is the components and
battery components including Lithium (Li) and Cobolt (Co) get lots of coverage.

Li and Co

LIT chart


And there are a heep of Li shares in Oz; here is a list I got from here;

lithium
CAPE RANGE LIMITEDASX : CAG
CAPITAL MINING LIMITEDASX : CMY
PLATYPUS MINERALS LTDASX : PLP
ALTURA MINING LTDASX : AJM
MARINDI METALS LTDASX : MZN
LITHIUM AUSTRLIA NLASX : LIT
EAGLE NICKEL LIMITEDASX : ENL
LITHEX LIMITEDASX : LTX
GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : GXY
BIRIMIAN GOLD LTD.ASX : BGS
OROCOBRE LIMITEDASX : ORE
NEOMETALS LTDASX : NMT
Peninsula MinesASX : PSM
COBRE MONTANAASX : CXB
TRAKA RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : TKL
PILBARA MINERALS LTDASX : PLS
RENASCOR RESOURCESASX : RNU

Co even bigger list:
Search for: cobalt
ADMIRALITY RESOURCES NLASX : ADY
AEON METALS LTDASX : AML
AUGUR RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : AUK
BARRA RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : BAR
BOTSWANA METALS LIMITEDASX : BML
BROCKMAN RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : BRM
CUDECO LIMITEDASX : CDU
COUGAR METALS NLASX : CGM
COMPASS RESOURCES LTDASX : CMR
COPPER STRIKE LIMITEDASX : CSE
CENTRAL WEST GOLD NLASX : CWG
ENCOUNTER RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : ENR
DIRECT NICKEL LTDASX : DIR
FISSION ENERGY LIMITEDASX : FIS
GIRALIA RESOURCES NLASX : GIR
GATEWAY MINING LIMITEDASX : GML
HIGHLANDS PACIFIC LIMITEDASX : HIG
HERITAGE GOLD NZ LIMITEDASX : HTM
INDEPENDENCE GROUP NLASX : IGO
JERVOIS MINING LIMITEDASX : JRV
KGL RESOURCES LTDASX : KGL
KORAB RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : KOR
LINCOLN MINERALS LIMITEDASX : LML
MIRABELA NICKEL LIMITEDASX : MBN
MINOTAUR EXPLORATION LTDASX : MEP
METALS FINANCE CORPASX : MFC
METALLICA MINERALS LIMITEDASX : MLM
AUS TIN MININGASX : ANW
NICKELORE LIMITEDASX : NIO
RIMFIRE PACIFIC MINING NLASX : RIM
RESOURCE MINING CORPORATION LIMITEDASX : RMI
SEGUE RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : SEG
SYNDICATED METALS LIMITEDASX : SMD
BROKEN HILL PROSPECTING LTDASX : BPL
HAVILAH RESOURCES NLASX : HAV
ALTIUS MINING LIMITEDASX : AYM
WARATAH RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : WGO
VIMY RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : VMY
ALTONA MINING LIMITEDASX : AOH
CORAZON MINING LTDASX : CZN
ENK PLCASX : ENK
MM MINING LTDASX :
AUSNICO LIMITEDASX :
MINDORO RESOURCES LTDASX : MDO
SHEFFIELD RESOURCES LIMITEDASX : SFX
INTERNATIONAL COAL HOLDINGS LIMITEDASX : ICL


Infrastructure impacts;

FWIW I have "looked at" most of the big transport infrastructure projects in Oz and NZ over last few years and the impacts of EV and DC mentioned precisely ZERO times = Zero planning.
One of the impacts of a DC future where very environmentally friendly incredibly high speed commuting can be done is the ability/willingness to commute further distances. The vision is you can start working as soon as you enter your “computer car” and while you commute at maybe 100++ km/hr …. Makes satellite cities/rural lifestyle living very attractive.

Secon impact is the potential blurring what is public transport and what is DC transport? If everything is driverless then what is the difference between a car, bus, tram and train?

(WHY AREN”T TRAINS ALREADY DRIVERLESS YOU MIGHT ASK? Should have happened a decade ago IMO.)



So overall question to me is:

What do we think the future will look like and how do we capitalise on it?