Hey
@Larkin ,
@wombat777 and
@Davisite (If you could add comment to any error or oversight possibly made);
I wonder if we would be able to run a quick back-of-the-forum calc to gauge just how protected we are from such an attempt.
Let us tally our assumptions....
- Following passing of Resolution 1, Regius have = 10%
- CJ and CW held indirectly = 10% combined
- Unquoted Class E Performance Rights to CJ for proving up JORC Graphite >50MT before June 10th 2017 and Dec 2019 could see an additional 5%.
- ANDIUM PTY LIMITED who are long term holders which i well an truly believe = approx 6%
- Is Lanstead still holding their now diluted approx 5% ? I would imagine so but don't see them on the top 20 updated a while ago.
- Myself through combined account holdings of a tad under 1% (Small fish in a big pond
)
Quick spin tally give (Drum Roll...... 37% approx)
The Expiry of the quoted 33 odd Mill options in June will be a big plus (a save from possible additional 10% dilution, assuming none were converted).
Now the mutiny that happened with GEM was executed from the inside out, Ie Pallinghurst's founder son was a BOD of GEM.
Pallinghurst already held 47% of Shares and corrupted GEM BOD member was able to rally up an additional 28% from other majority holders.
Assuming a TO were to be staged i don't see it possible for an unsolicited bid due to large spread of top holders unlike like GEM's unfortunate registry structure (An unsolicited bid the worst imo because of lack of say and likely no chance in hell of a premium, Tough Mother! )
Should a solicited bid strategy emerge, they would be required to accumulate i think a minimum of 20% unsuspectingly ( i.e. 100Mil shares approx before then under ASIC requirements be forced to make a bid offer. In light of this i am of the opinion that a TO would be a fair way off, not impossible but rather improbable. I recall back during the high Volume MUS days that greater than 100Mil traded in any single day, however i do speculate that this volume was rather day trade pip flips and not reflective of free float volume for one to have accumulated without price spiking much higher than it ever had previously. Anyways next few months will be interesting
