Come on, lets join the dots. If there is going to be a takeover bid, it is likely to be soon - probably before the next QR swings the SP up.
Evidence - Board have appointed an M&A expert and that $3M group of buy orders each morning flagging an accumulator. They have to be the same person - come in the same time each day - adding up to about the same amount. Massive change for the better in the outlook of the company and the market hasn't woken up yet. Indeed, someone made a point of making sure the SP went down after a very positive last QR.
Takeoverer and a couple of friendlies each aim to get to 4.99% without disclosure to the ASX. Board would know about it though (and that may prompt them to get some M&A expertise on board). We could probably assume this plan would have been hatched around October/November 16 btw - so they might have been at it since then.
Sign option agreements with MtK bond holders - exerciseable in 2 tranches. Each leaves MtK below the 20% takeover threshold after they convert and before they sell. That would get them to around 50% and control of the board.
What would be the offer price they have to offer to all shareholders? Well, in reality that will be determined by the MtK bond holders. Under Australian law they should not get more than the profit on their shares when the sell under their options. You would presume they would want to make a healthy return. Would 50% do it? If so - price 15c - but I'll come back to that.
Board at that point will know it is unstoppable. Will there be any competing bids? The likes of Glencore perhaps? No - because they can't win if the MtK bond holders are locked in with Takeoverer. Boards do in that scenario what they always do when it is unstoppable - recommend the bid, as long as it is a fair way above current price - even if it does not go anywhere near reflecting the true enterprise value and strong potential of the business.
Back to the price MtK will accept. That probably depends whether they are connected to JARE and embedded in Japan Inc. Remember, it has been suggested here that Masayoshi Son holds about 70% of the bonds. If so, will he be looking to screw his Japan Inc. mates for 50%, or would be happy to accept a more modest profit - say 25%. If so price 12.5c. If Takeoverer moves whilst the price is 8.1c, that would probably get them across the line with the Board recommending the price. But if the price reaches 12c before the takeover, it'll have to be somewhat higher to get Board approval, without them risking a class action a few years down the track when the new owners have full control and are making a motza (that recent appointment to the Board might come in handy working out how to cover butts). If you don't accept the offer, don't expect much in dividends or share appreciation when you are forcibly acquired.
The one thing that would move that offer price up a bit would be a recognition by lots of people real soon (starting here) about just how strong that possibility is, with the SP firming from there. atm there is quick 50% gain to be made if this idle speculation has something to it and you are not already way over-exposed.
Aus I don't expect you would want to respond for very good reason, but I recon you've joined the dots and probably know too much to be able to lay it all out.
And I think Aus has a better idea than anyone else posting here what the real EV of the business is right now.
Just an exercise in trying to join the dots - mere speculation - make your own assessment.
LYC Price at posting:
8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
they should not get more than the profit on their shares when the sell under their options. You would presume they would want to make a healthy return. Would 50% do it? If so - price 15c - but I'll come back to that.
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