MBL has stated that it will not increase the consideration under the current Scheme, unles there is a Superior Offer. That's that.
"In the absence of a Superior Proposal (as defined in the Scheme Booklet), Macquarie MPVD will not
increase the Scheme Consideration under the Scheme."
It is highly unlikely a Superior Offer will be made by anyone, whilst the Scheme is current.
So MBL will let the Scheme vote run its course.
MBL has not said it will not come back with another offer.
MBL WILL have a Plan B. Because it will be well aware that the NO vote may well succeed.
I think we all agree that the SP will drop once a NO vote gets up.
So how much will it be.
I am betting MBL will let the SP drop - then come back with an On-Market Offer - probably at 20c level.
I am certain that most of those shares traded at 20c went to hedge type funds.
That will still be sitting on those shares, because they cannot sell them now, unless they take a loss.
So MBL will figure that those funds will watch the SP drop, and then will sell into an on-market offer.
And one would think that the CTP Board would be in a bind, because the CTP Board has already stated that 20c is Fair and Reasonable?
MBL does not need 100% - it can get by with majority (over 50%) and do what it needs to.
This scenario has just played out with Flinders Mines (FMS).
If that does happen, MBL will get control of the board and reconstitute it, raise CR to do the work needed.
MBL would underwrite the CR's.
I think eventually MBL would come back to take-out the minorities, but longer term.
That might not be what s/h want to hear, but it is just my opinion.
Just sayin'
Cheers
CTP Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
