My numbers are based on simple calcs Domum. 2.6b bbls of vo/wc for the original 271,000 acres. Pro-rata scaled up for 690,000 acres is 6.6b bbls. I have no insight to make adjustments (upwards) for the thickening of the HRZ to the East, or for perhaps a greater concentration of the new acreage on the sweetspot (old acreage assumed by PB to be 70% sweetspot). Likewise, I also do not make allowance for the approx 1.5b bbls of unrisked conventional targets. If all of these factors were to be included, we could have a number around 8b.
You pose an interesting question - how big is too big? "Can they afford us?"I think part of the answer lies with who may be amongst the bidders. One name I don't hear being canvassed too often on these boards is a major player on the North Slope but has dwindling production (and reserves) there, and has limited investments in shale oil period. Given the rise in shale oil, they may well want that to be a more notable component of their portfolio. I would look out for BP - either alone or as a lead in a consortium. I would also not discount CNPC. This would tick so many boxes for them.
But, at the risk of excessive repetition, let's first await the flow test.
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