I bought 100,000 @ 0.068. Have 260,000 total on spec.
Most of my best wins on the market come via very risky plays. The logic is that the most you can ever lose is 100%. If you think the potential upside is, for example, 500%, then it comes down to what probabilities you assign to different scenarios. Exactly what a previous poster did, assigning bankruptcy a 30% probability but a longer term recovery (with share price more than 500% higher) at 25% and a takeover (with perhaps a 100% or more price appreciation) also at 25%.
Not saying I am working to exactly the same figures, but people who use simplistic analysis such as, 'company might be going broke, therefore it must be a sell', clearly are not interested in mathematics or probability theory. They are the same people who would never bet on a sports team they thought was going to lose, no matter how generous the odds were.
They are also the same kind of people who even having read this won't understand it and if the company goes broke they will say, 'see, you made a big mistake.' Just like if I'd received a million to 1 odds on Hawthorn to beat Port they would think I was stupid to take the bet, because Hawthorn lost.
If you don't know what an overlay is you shouldn't criticise sharemarket punters who buy shares in distressed companies because you don't know what is making them tick. It's certainly not that they are blind to the problems or think the company is good, but they might think there is a realistic possibility of the share price appreciating nevertheless.
Someone said that the 'smart' money is now out and the shares are now owned by mums and dads. Really? The top 20 are all wealthy mums and dads? The millions of shares bought at under 7c were all bought by suckers who think Troy is doing well? The people selling Troy at 6.5c were 'smart money', exiting at an all time low? If that's smart money, I'd hate to see dumb money. IMO smart money was out long ago and is probably either coming back in now or waiting on the sidelines quietly watching the panic and maybe even helping it along a bit.
I am NOT suggesting anyone buy this stock, just explaining (IMO) why there is a market and why for every share sold there has been one bought.
Expand
