Upstream article, page-18

Hi zip

Good advice. Hopefully today's medal round won't stuff up the rest of the weekend!

As a paid-up member of the Blue team, my exuberance for FAR's prospects might come across as total confidence. In fact I have moments of doubt - even foreboding - the same as most. So for balance, here are the factors that concern me (in no particular order).

The oil price. Even the big oil companies chant the lower-for-longer mantra. I read these projections of a hefty bounce in the OP within a few years, but I don't believe them: Companies and countries are all about No.1 and I foresee an ongoing glut as agreements are flouted. I think we're all kidding ourselves if we think big oil will offer silly prices for FAR or its assets - Hardman is of another era.

Senegal. Stable today, but who knows. And the Government's naivity is already on show.

Greed and bastardry. We've already seen it from COP, and I suspect Woodside and Cairn are complicit. Even at 15 per cent of SNE, FAR is literally astride an elephant and is therefore a target.

Regarding the previous point, I do not agree with the dilution-is-death brigade. IMO the Board's judicious capital raisings have not only enabled us to grow our asset but give us some chance to keep it.

Key person risk. We are a tiny company employing some astonishing people. I used to tell my staff that no one is irreplaceable but I reckon Cath and Reg are. And don't underestimate the value of our Chair, Ben Clube or our key geos and drilling chiefs. FAR's geographical knowledge and political capital reside within this small group. You won't see me bagging out options: I hope the promise of riches is a very strong bond.

Climate change. I admit to being somewhat guilty about investing in carbon. I reconcile it by arguing that if we don't mine it someone else will anyway. It's a pathetic justification. Trump aside, the World is finally acting quickly on climate and I fear our window of opportunity is closing quickly.

I could go on - haven't even mentioned the bloody market - but you get the drift. This is a highly risky investment and I worry about it daily. I have not bet the farm, but I'm in big time and like you do not want to lose my capital.

So does all this doom and gloom mean I am pessimistic? No, I still think we'll do okay as long as our top people retain their focus and perspective. But to come back to your point, zip, yes I probably go OTT at times and I am guilty of having the naysayers on Ignore. It doesn't mean I think their arguments are nonsense; it means I prefer to stick my head in the sand and hum loudly during the bad moments we seem to suffer all too often.

OOO