MAE 0.00% 0.0¢ marion energy limited

capital raising, page-7

  1. 2,399 Posts.
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    Firstly, let me acknowledge that Bello & others have made money over the past week. Good for you guys, well done.
    However, I would not be placing too much credence on Patersons. I took notice of a Paterson's report on a little company called Tectonic Resources (back in May 2006). The report was positive - with a target projection of 37c (up from mid twenties). Their research was great, and Tectonic went the other way - down to 9c just four months after the report.

    Patersons makes no real analysis of Marion's past predictions and why they have not been met. They mention difficult terrrain and bad weather, but this is shallow. They also accept at face value the potential size of the resource.

    Based on today's close, Marion's market capitalization is $300 million, which makes it the highest valuation of any of the comparable companies in the Paterson report (although it has the highest resource base, if we accept the accuracy of that).

    Revenues have not been proven yet, and the drilling program for next year - according to Paterson's has 20 holes at Clear Creek (Estimate of $800k USD each),
    a further 8 holes at Jefferson McLeod ($1-1.2m USD each), and 50 wells at Helper (timeframe and estimated costs not stated).

    I have seen some estimates of $100k USD free cash flow to Marion each day, once production starts. Whether this is right I don't know - but I can see at least $24mUSD in drilling over the year ahead, if Marion keep their plans.

    I still see the company visiting the money tree sometime over the next three months - oh yes, that would be the 20million options expiring June 30th. Be ready to cough up - most likely before you see production.
 
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