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07/06/17
13:24
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Originally posted by nine lives
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I have no doubt that RM's group are competent market commentators but at the end of the day they are, like us, only human. My feeling is that RM is down on VOC because they are down on Telcos. And they are down on Telcos because they are still reeling from the shocking drop in VTG and they are still wiping egg from their faces. What VTG do they have done very well in the past under astute CEO Maxine Horne....but even Maxine Horne was unloading tens of millions of dollars worth of VTG shares last August the same week James Spenceley was unloading VOC. Both stocks were multiples of their current price. But as recently as a couple of weeks ago before the last lot of bad news, when VTG was still around $1.30, RM put out a note that VTG was still a hold. However you could sense the nervous perspiration dripping from that report.
Within days of RM's note VTG released a report regarding how TLS intended to significantly reduce the amounts they were prepared to pay VTG for their services. The share price plummeted quickly from 1.30 to 85c and RM was left to pick through the wreckage and to explain to his followers what coulda woulda shoulda been. I think one can hardly blame them for being scarred by that experience and perhaps feeling a little embarrassed. I can only imagine how that has now coloured their view of the world.
It must give them chills when they see a few eerie comparisons between VOC and VTG. Both are in the telco sector, both had senior execs dump tens of millions of dollars in shares at the top within a week of each other and both seem to have a chart that knows no bottom. In my time of investing I have had my own views similarly prejudiced by a bad experience only to frustratingly learn that history often does not repeat and I have lost the opportunity to make up on the roundabout what I lost on the swing. I am not saying that RM's note on VOC is necessarily wrong but knowing what trauma they have recently gone through with VTG I have decided that their note on VOC is something I am going to discount from my considerations for the time being as I cannot see how at this time they could, try as they may, be giving us an unbiased and balanced assessment.
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Poor ol' Roger Montgomery can't take a trick with the telcos at the moment. Hold VTG at 1.30 and sell VOC at 2.40. Have they currently got any other telco recommendations because if they do I would like to know so I can do the opposite.