Hi Guys.
Have spent a lovely afternoon with Mum and a few Rellies who brought Mum back from the country where Dad passed peacefully and in the best scenario as could have possibly happened.
We have all grieved together and Mum has been great as usual. Very upset of course but getting right down to organsing all that needs to be organized in these sad times but with lots of hugs and chats about what had happened.
In fact Mum (at 89 years of age !!! ) and my sister attempted CPR on Dad but it appears he had probably passed on at least 10 to 15 minutes before they started CPR and with the left side of his heart already weak He really had little chance of being revived. Just quite incredible stuff when reflecting on it later tonight.
But as You said Laz, lots of hugs and talking has done wonders for all. Still a long way to go, particularly for Mum but She is doing just great.
So once again thanks for all Ur best wishes guys. Its so uplifting to know there are many that r thinking of us at this sad time.
Thought it important to let U guys know why I feel OK to get back to posting at this critical time for us all in many ways.
ANYWAY, and I say this with a big sigh to myself,
Time for a bit of thought on OUR potentially transformational journey with our investment.
Laz has given a HUGE hint to all of us here, and once again so has DW in the smallest detail of the annmnt. Little to indicate in the annmnt that there might be anything to positive to add.
BUT is this the case ?
The paragraph disclaimer at the end of the annmnt is indeed sobering. But in reality its the risk factor that has been expounded to us in the last couple anmnts. There r still those unknowns that I don't need to repeat that can only be confirmed with solid real time fluid and well performance measurements and data.
It is the reality of a new type of play.
But as I said there r some big hints in just one small paragraph in the annmnt and one has to think a little laterally as obviously Laz has done in processing all that we have been talking about in the last few days.
The big clue is in what they ARE
NOT PERFORATING AND FRACKING.
They r fracking the upper and lower zones of the HRZ but arnt touching the central zone and I think I'm right in saying this is where we will find the HIGH PERMEABILITY zones that they don't want to damage too much with the major initiating fractures from the perf holes. Its this zone that needs to be structurally retained as having much higher permeability will have less structural integrity if those strata forces we talked of are disturbed.
Its best to leave this zone with minimal disturbance and let it do they job they always intended it to do, that is act like a natural high flowing conduit into the ends of the fractures from above and below when created.
The other dynamic going on here is the already mentioned elevated pore pressure.
But Ill go back to something they didn't say in the annmnt but it is IMPLIED imo.
They talk of targeting the similar stress profiles
WITH high HC content.
I highlight the WITH becos what they r saying is that the upper and lower HRZ that DONT have the added advantage of high permeability, will be the zones that need the MOST HELP in initial flowing of the HCs As mentioned, once the fracture network, hopefully a complex one that should radiate out with the similar stress profiled shale, will reach the central higher permeability zone and BINGO, that super highway with the tempestites will do all that they have been espousing over the last year and a half.
Now heres an importanat poit.
Just becos the annmnt might IMPLY the central zone doesn't have high HCs this is CLEARLY NOT THE CASE imho.
They
DO NOT SAY IT DOESNT HAVE HIGH HYDROCARBON CONTENT !!!,
just that it, DOESNT HAVE THE
COMBINATION OF SIMILAR STRESS REGIME AND HIGH HYRDOCARBONS that
r required for the initiating of the complex fractures.
Now this is where one needs to think about the CONSISTENT HIGH PORE PRESSURE being exterted on EACH AND EVERY PORE within the reservoir.
EACH AND EVERY PORE WILL BE PUSHING TO THE LOWEST REGION OF PRESSURE ONCE THE IMMEDIATE RESERVOIR ZONE HAS BEEN STIMULATED and this INCLUDES THE CENTRAL HIGH PERMEABILITY THAT WILL MORE THAN LIKLEY ALSO HAVE HIGH HC CONTENT.
Remember way back in the HRZ Petrophysics annmnt
(Apologies cant get the link to work at the moment for the 88E annmnt, but its dated 29th Feb 2016)
Core and Petrophysics Data Indicate World Class Resource Potential at Icewine#1
88 Energy Limited (“88 Energy”, “the Company”, “Operator”) (ASX, AIM: 88E) is pleased to provide the following update on the evaluation and integration of the core with log data over the HRZ interval from the recently drilled Icewine#1 exploration well.
Highlights
Integrated Core and Petrophysical Analyses Indicate Tier 1 Liquids-Rich Hydrocarbon Concentration with World Class Resource Prize Potential
- Consistent with Pre-Drill Forecast
-
Gross Pay of 196’ with Net Pay of 180.5’
-
Exceptional Net to Gross Ratio of 92% as Prognosed
Reservoir Quality In Line With or Above Expectation:
o Outstanding Effective Porosity of 11% Shale Plays Typically in 4 – 7% Porosity Range
o Total Organic Carbon (TOC) Average of 3.55% in Cored HRZ Interval
o Hydrocarbon Saturation Over
Entire HRZ Interval Estimated at >70%
IMO this implies that the high permeability zone, being avoided to retain its structural intergrity for conduit purposes,
will also have a decent amount of HC contained, certainly enuf to aid in the movement of these HC's towards the relatively lower pressure gradient being created by the stimulation fractures once the flow back initiates HC movement from the pores. Don't forget if we have elevated pore pressure each and every pore will be pushing towards the next pore that has a realtively lower pressure gradient and
with the volatile vapour phase gas dynamic being in eveidence this will also greatly improve this movement with the lower gas viscosity.
So once again the market is not seeing the forest for the trees by attempting to go thru the above thought process and find the DW hints !!!
One would have thought that it would have learned by now.
Not too worry.
This also helps the shares move from the uneducated to the educated that will hold for longer given the higher understanding they have of this play and more than likely these will be funds that have the capital to move BOTH MARKETS.
The selling is simply traders either playing the technical or those not thinking deeply enuf about whats going on here.
However this is an amateur viewpoint and again, as the company points out there r still those other risks apparent.
HOWEVER as the annmnt show,s there is STRUCTURE in how they r approaching the stimulation of the HRZ by stimulating the similar stress regimes for the better complex fracture network potential and retaining the implied high permeability zone structural integrity by not fracking that zone.
Hope this helps some understand yet another typical DW annmnt.
Not going to espouse the DW reasoning behind this anncing, suffice to say its extremely smart market tactics from DW that has ulterior motive with the high liquidity involved in this companies trading. It does however involve those that r holding and buying shares having faith and understanding in what they r trying to achieve.
d.
PS. Please ask questions if one has trouble understanding the above. I will prefer to keep my mind ticking over on the positive and thinking of my Dad, and our good memories rather than our loss. Its His lifes work I'm most proud of and I'm sure He would be disappointed if I didn't maximize myself doing what I enjoy. Its what He wanted for his kids.
Thanks again to all
(20min delay)