Ann: Reinstatement to Official Quotation, page-12

Yes, that contract was for 30 TJ/d. But as I said there is currently 75 TJ/d flowing up the Carpentaria pipeline so that still leaves 45 TJ/d of demand in the Isa area. CTP only has max 60 TJ/d capacity through NGP left to use (because PWC has already contracted the first 30), although the longer they faff about with second supplementary disclosure statements and the like, the bigger the chance NT PWC will steal another march on them and use up more of NGP's capacity.

But that PWC contract is actually a great example of what I'm talking about. PWC was able to undercut IPL's previous contract to the tune of $55M a year savings for IPL. There are a bunch of other industrial and mine users in the Isa area and also new mines going in, including Dugald River and hopefully Altona's Little Eva mine. Several of those users would likely pay higher than the LNG netback to ensure guaranteed supply too - that's what happened in 2012 when MMG signed a GSA with Origin for the Century mine - they paid a then-record price of $9/GJ at a time when the spot price was around $4.

So for EY to say the base case for CTP's gas sales is LNG netback of $8.75 with $5.20 transport charge is a pretty dangerous assumption IMO. There are reports in the papers lately that contracts are currently going for $12 all the way up to $20/GJ. So why is CTP wringing its hands in the face of Macquarie instead of getting out there and chasing these buyers? For $20/GJ you could ship it all the way from the Amadeus to Melbourne and still make a margin of $10! They reckon they can't get funding, but if they signed a bloody binding GSA they would find people a lot more willing to fund them.