morning all, hi Drumo
maaaaaaaaaaaate - that's a hell of a consolidation we got there
sort of reframes the true meaning of gravestone really -- but, hey, I love it - what do those Japanese fellas know anyway?
I put the pic and the reframe below.
Well - has anyone worked out just what the hell happened in the last 2 trading days?
I thought about it a bit - and, I might be right or I might be wrong - but, I 'think' we had some sort of combination of factors -
a. a positive announcement -- even if old news to some, and new news to others - it sounded positive none the less - so, we had a bit of excitement to open with
b. there was supply in the wings -- tax losses - and, just as there is every year - people want to take the loss for tax - but, they don't really want to - so, they hang on, hoping for a best price (ie. God, please make something happen) - so, I can take a loss - but, the smaller the better
c. enter the ann. just at the right time when the tax loss deliberates were getting very very itchy time wise - so
bam - she runs --- and, the supply kept it going - because - often in the past - the supply has just dried up
And, the run was so rabid that even I sold some off at 63 because I thought - whoops - there is some insanity going on here.
I knew most of it was retail - so, hence, it was hot - and, boy, just like in the kitchen - things boiled over - indeed, I thought they had boiled over a couple of times - lucky for me, I picked it pretty right.
So, where to now? ---------- well, you know my theory, no point telling people again.
Next stop one supposes is CFN - but, we shall see about that one - because we have been told about 4 or 5 times in the past that we are about to be CFN or CFP - but, it has not come to be - so, why would this be different?
I think it will be so, personally - but, again - I put very very little importance on it - for over such short periods - because if you get a 'giant' order in which you have to buy chemical for - your CFP can go out the window as quick as it came in.
So - for my money - personally - the big signal I will be looking for is for the bank facility to be replenished somewhat ------------- THAT to me - would show a couple of very important things -
a. yep - cash is good (and, naturally revenue as well - along with margins) and
b. we have properly managed that cash by actually putting it into the capital repayments of the facility -------- which - at this stage - I like very much. (I see that - then I see the numbers actually confirming no raising).
I look forward to seeing the 4C - but, again - I take it with a grain of salt - as long as we are viable really - because we hear - now AGAIN that we have increasing sales - ie. more chemical going out the door ---------- BUT, ipso facto - this means that MORE chemical must be coming IN the back door - which - we have to pay for - and, the chances are that we have to pay OUT the cash - BEFORE we get paid IN the cash by our clients - so, again - the 4C might well be not all that instructive -
the real instructive document will be the true revenue etc. which shows in the FY report (which we can dissect into 2 halves).
Anyway - here is our 'consolidation day'
-------- I have no concerns here - I believe the business is sound - and, I really won't take much notice of the share price until after the full year report -
have a great weekend all
Pinto
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