elliot wave theory ... im lost., page-4

hi dub,

nice to know you're up and about this morning at a sensible hour !

this is the bit i like :
If the gold price declines significantly below these low points for a flat correction, (say below $630) then we would have to consider the possibility of more serious downside corrective action. MY THOUGHTS NOW. RISING US$ RATES WILL CAUSE THIS TO HAPPEN. 40.

If, however, the smaller irregular a-b-c corrective pattern is the correct analysis, then we should experience a very strong upside move, possibly a $100 upside catapult, commencing very soon. NOT NOW JOSEPHINE !

The fact that the "fire alarm" has been ringing in the bond markets around the world suggests that the "Cash is Trash" and "Fiat currencies are headed for Oblivion" camp will prove to be correct. A new wave of "store of value" investment in gold and other tangibles should now gather momentum. This might well be the trigger that gives rise to the sharp upward move in the precious metals that the Elliott Wave analysis suggests is imminent. NOT IMMINENT BUT COULD BE BY YR END ?

me again,

so how about this ...

interest rates take a dramatic turn upwards to try and solve the credit bubble.

recession hits home and no one spends.

gvts panic and bring rates down again.

investors see all hell break lose and buy gold.

not impossible. very likely in fact but when ? going by the ew i'd say the abc is going to be incorrect just now. it will however respond later.

as in all waves the timing is difficult to predict. in hindsight tho it seems easy.

ive tried to put into words what the graphs tell me and using this bit from the text i'll go for it as a good enough point to watch.

hope i'm clear ? been my thoughts for some weeks now. buying the GOLD fund from new zealand looks a good bet. the kiwi cannot stay at these levels. it's just about only milk that is likely to hold up price wise. not enough to keep the kiwi high, is it ? i'd get the currency gain for my nzd's to the aussie if i'm right and any rise in gold in local currency terms too. thinking hard about this but not just now to be making my move. i want dble figures in sight for those 10 yr bonds globally first. i didn't have dble figures in mind until mervyn spoke. that's enough for me. he isn't talking silly bggrs. he's making it quite clear that the boe is gonna get angry soon enough and s od gordon brown.

time will tell,

getting very interesting with mkts rising constantly with little worry.

be good,

40.