Dave has been diligent in keeping the market informed week by week no matter what stage they were at post the weekend.
As we can all see they r part way thru the backflow but He still anncd which I think caught many off guard with the assumption that if they r part way thru backflow and r anncing that there could be issues with how it will backflow.
The annmnt clearly states that there could be a slowing of the frac juice but that there r procedures to motivate the continuation of the flow.
It's common re this occurrence but obviously not commmon enuf for the antsy asx traders.
As has been mentioned Dave knew there would b volatility and flagged it a little while ago in a preso or email. Can't remember which.
The more I look at the chart, and yes I do occasionally like to do so more for how market expectation is progressing than anything else, and we had that quick kick to mid 6s based on little except well progress. There was really nothing to suggest positive flow rates and yet when we see yet another weekly update with something that doesn't quite go to plan re the plug all hell brakes loose.
Market has constantly been reminded in the annmnts that risk is still 50:50 until such a time that they annc otherwise so imho that sudden rise to 6s was probably a bit over done and the drop back has simply put us back into the trend channel.
If the sp had broken down Thru that channel then there could b cause for concern.
It's healthy to constantly question ones investment but I certainly don't do it on knee jerk reactions from the market.
First I read the annmnt and let it sink in and if in MY assessment there appears nothing sinister I dont change any of my risk indicator lights. I may occasionally see some flick to orange and it's then I bury my head in google and further research hard before even thinking of applying a manual stop loss.
This obviously has potential massive consequences for my investment but when I invest I invest in the story.
I'm of the opinion that these guys should be cut some slack as we have constantly been told this is a new type of play and there could be issue to solve along the way. It has gone amazingly smoothly to date and like Insaid above the market reaction to what appears to be simply a plug issue is close to ludicrous.
I may be proven wrong but the annnt does clarify why they did what they did but is careful not to make any assumptions as to what this HRZ communication factor may have on the final flow result.
Imo it was simply a progress annmnt as to where they sit REALTIME as they did part way thru the proppant placement.
As Ya mentions we r still to reach the stage at which we have a HC sample we can put a definitive GOR number on and we still need flow numbers. This is simply not possible until those physical parameters r measured and analysed.
The market is not a patient sole these days with all the excess cash sloshing about and we will have over reaction.
I negate that by using my own decision making process which may b too slow for some but it stops me from making hasty decisions on my longer term investment vision.
If one doesn't like such an investment method then there r ways to alleviate exposure. There has been plenty of opportunity to do so of late so I have no sympathy for any that bought well below current sp and haven't locked in if they felt their exposure was too high.
For those that bought above current sp, again I have no sympathy if they have over exposed themsevelves by pouring too many funds into this. The higher the sp goes the higher the risk until such a time any potential positive flow/GOR news emerges. It's that simple.
d.
88E Price at posting:
4.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)