when you buy you have to assign a realistic long term price to your pricing model!
Even if you bought at PON $50K and expected PON to go to $60K or $65K, you had to know that at some point in your long term investment horizon, the PON was liable to drop a little!
Thus EPS will be affected and the Price of the stock will change.
Ill put this out there: I reckon PON will settle around $30-$35K per tonne in the medium term.
I worked out that EPS was apprx 16cps with a price of ni at $30,000
Avg PE until production or until RAMP UP I reckon will be 5 or 6 max
thus the valuation I give and which I cannot escape is 80-90cents for AGM
I pretty much said 80cents a few months back and was attacked from all angles.
you cant escape the fundamentals guys and fundamentals say to me 80-90cents for now.
Given that SENTIMENT is BAD atm , then valuation the market gives will deviate below this figure of 80-90cents.
I assign 80-90cents as a mean avg price valuation given the fundamentals at least till production or ramp up.
If SENTIMENT gets better, then the valuation in short-term can rise above 80-90cents for me.
Sentiment bad now, so I wouldnt be surprised if price can drop below the 80-90cent bad by a little, but it WONT stay there long!
this of course is ALL according to MY analysis, but I stand by my valuation of 80-90cents till proddy/ramp up.
thus anything below this range FOR ME is a topping up opp as you cant escape the fundamentals
long term itll be fine - theyll ramp up production and then ill give them a PE closer to 10 rather than closer to 5 given the long mine life.
for now 80-90cents in a conservative sense for me.
AGM Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held