todays chart, page-320

La Ce have barely moved in last 4 months. Production is down and over 800 tons of product were stockpiled in Q3 which I assume was La and Ce. Now you agree with me that there is no chance of all the 600M being paid. Which Aushead said I was crazy for saying. So you admit that like the last 3 amendments this one cannot be met. I am not saying that not it will shut them down I was wrong Last time. But every amendment so far has caused more dilution. This last one if fully exercised will cause the number of share to more than double from the June 30 2016 balance of 3.488B shares. Lynas cannot cancel the options or buy out the bounds without Mt K approval.

The most likely scenario actual does have the debt handled with little or no dilution. Stock goes into low teens and Mt K exercises all there options. Stock goes into high teens and most if not all the bounds are converted. Diluting stock but using no cash. This puts a limit on the stock price somewhere in high teens. During this time Lynas pays US$ 100M of Jare debt which should be very doable. In 2020 Jare will refinance the remainder at Market rates with little problem. If MtK has converted all the bounds then they are gone and all Lynas needs to do is a reverse split. If not then they will probably Give Mt K another set of options and leave 10C bound conversion untouched. How many and what price is dependent on how many Mt K Bounds are left. The more bounds left the bigger the option package.

Lynas Cannot force MtK to sell bounds to them. They can offer to buy them the price would be a percentage of current stock price. MtK would take this deal to eliminate the risk of buying and selling. If stock was at 18C Price would probably be about $1.50 per bound I do not see Lynas having enough cash to do this at all, unless Jare waves the Sweep of cash at 40M of free cash. Not sure if doing this would take a stock holder vote.


I have a buy order in. I have recently raised the price and I am accumulating. Right now the most important short term thing I am watching is not REE prices they are more than high enough right now. they can even go down a little and Lynas will be fine. The most important thing for me is when Mt K exercises the first block of 5C options, also cleans up the remainder 18M of old block. Price and volume will say allot about MtK thinking and what type of ceiling these options will put on Lynas SP. It is good that the end of year has passed with no exercise. This gives Lynas a good chance of Keeping the Free cash below 25M and not losing the restricted cash. At these NdPr prices Lynas can probably do just fine without restricted cash I would like to see them keep the buffer for awhile just in case NdPr suddenly reverses. It is like being retired I personally think the market will go higher before correcting but I still keep 2 years living expenses in a very safe and liquid place in spite of poor return.