great depression fall looms..., page-38

sanfelipe,

just wanted to clarify a point you made earlier. You mentioned that world events such as the olympics and so forth would stop a depression happening.

Whilst this is a noble idea, its actually not a possibility.

World events, regardless of how big or small they are, do not really have the capacity to stop the flow of an economic cycle. They may delay it or speed it up, but they will not alter it to any great degree .. the depression will still happen and so will the boom.

What are the chances of us having another depression, the chances I can tell you with complete and utter certainty is 100%. After which it'll be followed by a big boom again which is what we are seeing now.

Good ecnomic management should be focussed on making the booms not too big and making the busts not so bad. Unfortunately, this art has never really been mastered and I honestly doubt it ever will be. Greed and fear are the two biggest factors there, and the generational gap. Very few, if any, on this forum would have lived through a depression, we've not had one for a long long time, only a couple recessions, so very few in the business world actually know what a depression is like or what causes it. Generally the economic downs we've seen here in aust have been recessions, not depressions - which only welcome's the idea that a depression is due.

We are currently in a great fantastic boom .. and it will continue for a little while longer but I do believe we are nearer the end of it than nearer the beginning.

In my opinion, we'll have a financial market crash roughly 12 months before the real down turn.

Though, I have heard a theory, and its just a theory, that we'll have a huge crash this yr in october - bigger than any there's been before, followed by a 9 month correction, followed by a 3-5 yr bull run which will be the biggest ever seen before. The theory does not comment after that point.

Dunno about the timing of all of these things. But I do know for a dead set certainty, economic policies, political decisions and consumer and business demand will will not be able to stop economic cycles. And unfortunately, the bigger the boom ... the bigger the bust.