Wouldn't they know if:
1. Proppant embedment had occurred.
2. The fractures had closed.
3. Proppant had not stayed in place.
They would definitely know the latter - surely - as proppant would have been coming out of the well.
We were told it was the frack that was the risk, whether the rocks fractures and proppant did its job, as well as other geological processes.
I am trying to understand what they would and wouldn't know. I would assume they have some kind of technology informing them how the fractures are doing? Though they didn't know they had fracked the middle zone until they flowed the well, so I am not sure.
They have said in the latest announcement 'water MAY be blocking hydrocarbons' - so it sounds like they aren't even that sure that's the problem.
I don't understand where the pressure has gone. The reservoir supposedly had good pressure, where has it disappeared to? The reservoir was/is supposedly extraordinary, in a vapour phase, sweet spot, billions of barrels. So the oils ability to flow by itself should not be an issue based on what the management told us.
As the frack was the rick - what has not been optimal with the frack, or what other issues have happened to possibly block flow. Have clays swelled, is water blocking the way....
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