Certainly a much better scenario than I thought (or the trolls predicted).
1. The worst case scenario was that ADO is in default to the vendor which means we lose Dia and it gets firesaled and we get back the change and limp along. The vendors held the cards on this and would be privvy to whatever the financing options are and decided it is better to allow the negotiations to proceeed.
2. It is obviously very close to being complete as there is the prospect of payment still being made within a few weeks or why have that option as part of the revised arrangements.
3. Whatever it is it is complete/big - the requirement by October 2nd is not just the earn out and next CN payment - it's for the lot.
4. It also includes sufficient working capital for the future - ie we won't have to go through this uncertainty again.
5. It looks like Anteo technology will be trimmed or focussed only on near term prospects or high value targets
The comment on a European adviser has me thinking it is still slightly more likely that Dia is being sold and the extended timeframe makes me think there is more than 1 buyer so the price might not be firesale after all and there will be sufficient working capital for ADO classic to sharpen it's pencil with Cook, Ellume, Atomo and energy.
Less likely options are that they have a significant injection of capital from someone new (too hard to get that level of dilution approved in time for October) or that there is a rights issue CR (again too little time to get documentation done). A tiny option is that they miraculously flog a deal to say Cook or on batteries for $10m+
My money is on a Dia sale at a reasonable price that leaves us with a trimmed ADO classic and a whack of cash left over to rejuvenate what we all invested for in the first place.
I have not spoken to anyone and am not in the tent so this is just my read of the announcement and as Rameez say - just my opinion.
Where does it wash out if this turns out to be true? Eventually 3-5c with a small chance at 5-8c
Ds out.
ADO Price at posting:
1.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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