BIG growth

BIG's performance has been outstanding, congratulations to the whole BIG team, especially management.

The key question for me relates to the growth in international markets. Clearly the Australian market is purring along with plenty of growth occurring, with lots more to come through the Business (ABN Newswire) partnership, along with the Beauty and Hospitality acquisitions, aided by the negative churn rate in revenue.

It hasn't been broken down by management in the latest presentation, but up until now the Australian operations would have accounted for roughly 85% of revenue (as per Q2 figures shared in half yearly presentation. This saw $700k contribution from the ROW, with most of that from the UK, with US just getting started. I get the sense that Q4 was the first quarter that the ROW income really started to kick on and grow its share as part of the business (maybe $2m worth in cash revenue), noting that Australia has probably still been outperforming the other markets in generating revenue with the beauty acquisitions coming on board.  

Here is my question though, with the split at Australia 85%, ROW 15%, I am wondering what the ROW contribution is now, but more importantly what it might be in 1 year, 3 years and 5 years time.

Q2 2017 - Cash revenue = $4.1m
85% Australia + NZ
9% UK
5% North America (USA + Canada)
1% Asia

Q4 2017 (guesstimate) - Cash revenue = $9.4m
80% Australia + NZ
12% UK
6% North America (USA + Canada)
2% Asia

I can only assume that the UK is already growing at a rate that sees it increase its share of BIG's global revenue, then this will slowly get taken over by the North American operation (USA + Canada).

Q4 2018 (guesstimate) - Cash revenue = $20m
65% Australia + NZ
20% UK
12% North America (USA + Canada)
3% Asia

Q4 2020 (guesstimate) - Cash revenue = $40m (just plucking a number!)
52% Australia + NZ
25% UK
20% North America (USA + Canada)
3% Asia


Given the size of the UK and North American markets, I still expect BIG things to come....read the last sentence of the Outlook from the recent announcement - "Revenue from overseas has commenced and we look forward to announcing more detail in Q1 FY17/18" - so I expect along with the Aus operations continuing to grow and bedding down partnerships and acquisitions, the focus of the story for BIG in FY17/18 will switch to the significant international revenue growth!