Shorts are declining, page-40

Hi PM,

Please let me clarify...re keeping it real.

What is currently transpiring in Tanz, can in one form or another, easily happen in Moz or any other African Country.

As you know I hold your posting/ analyzing skills in high regard and there is lots of valuable info in a lot of them - thank you.

I don't like posting my spreadsheets I use for the Co's I invest/follow, but can admit they are nowhere near as sophisticated as yours, but I can say they form only approx 30% in the buy/sell decision. I have no degree in Finance/ Economics and all my knowledge comes from experience via trial/ error and a lot of reading and I place big value on meeting management, my "hunch"
has played a big part in whatever I've done so far and I think is a very important skill, if one ca call it that (?), to have.

Re SYR, and my thinking:

* MC is still to high - My aim is to find Co's with a reasonable chance of doubling in value from when I buy.
I can't see that happening with SYR in the next 12 months
* Shorters have a firm grip for a very long time, without knowing what they know/ plan it remains very risky to take a position.
* The low Opex figures holders rely on,come only into play at full planed production output, which I doubt will be anytime soon. We are only half way trough 2017, it's a long way to 2020, where demand is likely to come into play, until then China has it covered together with to odd 1 or 2 new smaller operators that likely will come online for end users that don't want to rely on Chinese supply.
* Sovereign Risk, ie armed conflict, change in Gov Policies.

Conclusion:

Combining the above with the possibility of some problems appearing during commissioning of the mine and considering the scale of the operation, this possibility should not be underestimated...add to it the large sums needed for the proposed SPG plant and the largest off-takers are Chinese..I don't see the need/ value opportunity to invest at $3+ a share and a MC ~ $900mil

My view should not take away from the fact that SYR has done a great job in coming this far and I think it was unfortunate for some holders that got caught in the (IMO Instrumented) hype where the SP went to $6+....but IMO is not a BUY at this moment in time.