Ann: Operations Update, page-73

Yes, that is something that has bothered me for a while too. What complicates it is in Dec 2015 they released an announcement about being puzzled by contradictory results where they saw good mud gas shows and fluorescence in cuttings, but when they cored, the core chip samples showed no cut or fluorescence at all. They even speculated the shows during drilling might have been grease or oil contamination from the rig.

Then they sent the core away for full analysis and came back saying the saturation confirmed the wireline estimate (ie >75%) and everything was fine.

It's just an odd thing to happen and throws a bit of uncertainty over the whole process. Particularly now that the flowback results seem to be suggesting a mobile water phase. The difference between a mobile HC phase and mobile water phase may only be 10% saturation or so. So I too wonder what the level of uncertainty in those core saturation measurements is. Ultimately the well flow test has the final say - the core measurements may tell you you've got >75%, but if the well is flowing water there's not much you can do about it.

Like I said in my previous comment it's not necessarily fatal for the play even if it turns out the core saturation measurements were overstated. It may just mean they have to revisit their maturity modelling and go for an area with higher maturity. I will eagerly await the outcome of this petrophysical review anyway.