BUD 0.00% 0.6¢ buddy technologies ltd

Ann: Buddy partners with Digicel to sell and distribute Buddy Ohm, page-97

  1. 9,779 Posts.
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    market is settling to see what the quarterly brings.

    So I'll try handicapping whats priced in and whats left as upside

    @ 14c - BUD has fully diluted market cap of $144maud

    So on the standard 30x price to sales ratio for good growth tech stories, the market is looking for $4.8M aud fy18 sales

    = 400 Ohm full time equivalent units @$1000 aud per month in place in fy18  (with further fy19 sales growth) assuming no other revenues (though we know Thor wil be a paying customer and there's possible data sales )

    fair to say market is probably hoping for twice that but is only willing to bid to 50% until it knows for sure.

    SO i'd say market needs to see...

    ~200 Ohm @1000aud/month paying units installed and another 200-300 to be done by December - for stock to maintain its current position

    +300 paying Ohm units already installed and it will  force a further rerate similar to what occured from 10 to 15c

    If 1000 full time equivalent (ie 1000aud per month)paying units already installed + Thor ongoing + further installations to occur in fy18... - fy18 sales would be $14M aud plus

    growth multiple would probably shift from 30x (standard for good growth tech stocks) to  50x+ (multiple for the really exciting earnings high growth tech stock

    BUD would be  undervalued by 5-? x - depending on number of further installs expected in fy18

    Personally  I think its possible 1000 units might be in place but that a number of them will be of the 'retail chain; variety that have lower billable revenue per month. Though that could still equate to 600-800 full time equivalent units.

    So im not pinning my hope on 1000 full time units.
    But happy to be wrong
 
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