market is settling to see what the quarterly brings.
So I'll try handicapping whats priced in and whats left as upside
@ 14c - BUD has fully diluted market cap of $144maud
So on the standard 30x price to sales ratio for good growth tech stories, the market is looking for $4.8M aud fy18 sales
= 400 Ohm full time equivalent units @$1000 aud per month in place in fy18 (with further fy19 sales growth) assuming no other revenues (though we know Thor wil be a paying customer and there's possible data sales )
fair to say market is probably hoping for twice that but is only willing to bid to 50% until it knows for sure.
SO i'd say market needs to see...
~200 Ohm @1000aud/month paying units installed and another 200-300 to be done by December - for stock to maintain its current position
+300 paying Ohm units already installed and it will force a further rerate similar to what occured from 10 to 15c
If 1000 full time equivalent (ie 1000aud per month)paying units already installed + Thor ongoing + further installations to occur in fy18... - fy18 sales would be $14M aud plus
growth multiple would probably shift from 30x (standard for good growth tech stocks) to 50x+ (multiple for the really exciting earnings high growth tech stock
BUD would be undervalued by 5-? x - depending on number of further installs expected in fy18
Personally I think its possible 1000 units might be in place but that a number of them will be of the 'retail chain; variety that have lower billable revenue per month. Though that could still equate to 600-800 full time equivalent units.
So im not pinning my hope on 1000 full time units.
But happy to be wrong
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