insider tip insider tip buy 25c, page-41

That is a very timely post Sharlene, and also others.

The Pike River Coal float is $65M and yes I expect there is significant institutional involvement. But bear in mind, the amount being raised is $65M and it is being raised in a float scenario and not on market. An insto could quite easily peel off $5M into this no trouble, without affecting the share price. If they get their shares, it simply goes into a long term fund somewhere and sits there.

However, to go into the marketplace and (say) buy $5M worth of PPP on a trading basis, well they would need to buy 30M shares just to get to $5M. I am sure that would breach most decent sized instos trading rules and benchmarks as PPP is too small. The % of a company's stock held and liquidity of the stock would not, for an institution, justfiy the risk, esp if something went wrong with PPP. In fact it is likely it would fall outside of their investing mandates altogether. This is an area I am well versed in, but the Top 20 that we will see shortly once all the options exercise paperwork is done will be interesting in this respect.

I think it is more likely for a predator to take such a large holding, but that path is also blocked by Tattersfield and now Tomkinson and whatever NZO have left. (That's not to say it could not happen).

Again I need to say, I cannot envisage that there are any instos in NZ that would be either interested or mandated to buy shares in PPP. The collateral damage to their reputation is not worth the risk (under their operating rules). I can only think of 1-2 instos in NZ that would even be interested. None of the others have the balls.

Don't get me wrong - that's not to say there isn't considerable value to be added to PPP (and prob NZO as well). The OGW is doing a good job in pointing all this out.

Tapis oil prices must be close to US$80 now. They are going to totally cream it if production comes on stream at anywhere near the 50,000 bopd.

Imagine what the combination of US$80 Tapis, 40-50K bopd production and any sort of reserves upgrade (or even a reserves confirmation) would do for the fundamentals of this company. I don't think 40 cents is out of the question if this triumvirate lined up together.

Good string