TAP (ASX) Ann: June 2017 Quarterly Report

Originally posted by nammuldi ↑

seems TAp is at a real crossroads now where 3rd party gas income goes just as these payments have helped erradicate the debt, and manora field now becoming more of a challenge to extend life and boost $$ in bank to allow some flexibility. More capital though required to do this and from presentation up to 30% of 33mm to 35mm spend including all contingencies suggest they will use a fair bit of cash flow again to extend manora thus i look at the presentation cash flow increasing nicely with some scepticism.

It is amazing to me having been in and out of TAP over the years at the 60c level etc etc that now AFTER ALL THIS TIME their total number of shares on issue is still 166m - that if nothing else is impressive given the bulk of oilers have diluted themselves to near oblivion in last 5 years.

so if they can pull off that cash flow increase and as someone suggested a divvey - say 0.5c - for $800,000 outlay would give current punters in at 6c a 8.3% return - THAT might spark some real interest, raise the sp to mid teens

interesting but no given so sp still languishes - but i am now accumlating on the chance they are succesful in their aims and hope they just might put out a divvey that would re-rate them very quickly instead of the slow pace of turnaround, exploration success will do - any decent acquisition will cost so that is not always going to re -rate them - it depends on the cost and what they acquir.

quiet acheiver over last few years and needs now a little luck in any exploration nearby or nab a real good deal somewhere and is able to extend manora for up to 6years.

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I think Manora should be looked at as the cash generate to underwrite the next move . They are looking at cash flow generating assets and may be able to purchase these with a bulk of debt but if for example they can monetise the WA gas assets for anything above 5 m then they could buy a sizeable asset with a combination of debt , equity and cash . Although equity dilution is likely at some point I think if it occurs after monetisation of gas assets it can occur at a much higher price . Complete debt funding is possible but I would prefer a little less leverage even if it means some dilution . At 26m market cap they are 4 m net cash, closet five ones adds the 800k still to come so it's cheap. Moreover a lot of value can be added by some exploration success near manora. Even a 2 m recoverable oil pool would add 2c a share to the SP in value